Thoughts on Immigration

Yesterday, there was the now traditional May Day immigration rally. Unlike the past few years, this was a smaller rally. I think that the whole issue seems to have disappeared from people's radar screens for now. Both parties are probably happy with this. The issue is very divisive. People don't want to be overrun by hordes of illegal aliens but I believe most people also recognize the value these folks bring to our country. And people really do not want to be in the position of deporting parents of children born here.

I think the real problem is not the immigrants we know but those we don't know. Everyone in the US knows an immigrant. And generally they like the ones they know. Growing up we had one guy across the street who was an immigrant from Italy and a guy down the street who was an immigrant from Egypt. No one had a problem with them. In fact, most people liked them, felt they were hard workers and nice people.

The issue is the immigrants we don't know -- the nameless faceless people who hang out at Home Depot looking for work. I am someone who is usually accused of being an "open borders" type, but I think the real problem here in the US is simply a matter of human nature -- people have a fear of the unknown and the "other".

The other problem is in Mexico. This is not an issue that just popped up, rather something that has been brewing for a century. Namely, the fact that successive Mexican governments have refused to reform the country, and instead send their excess population to the US. It has only gotten worse under the leadership of Fox and Calderón. And to make it worse for Mexico, those who have left probably represent the most ambitious of their lower classes. The rich have no reason to leave and the middle classes probably feel they can still make a go of it. But if you are poor and ambitious, the government has basically said "Go North!" So Mexico is basically exporting those people who would be helpful in building up a better Mexico.

I am sympathetic to illegal immigrants and their plight. I believe generally in free movement of goods and people. And considering that we do not have the all pervasive and suffocating safety net that Europe has, the kind of people that come here will be the hard working people we want to attract. But wandering around the fringes of the rally yesterday, I think it would be easier to be sympathetic if many of those marching were not wearing Che Guevara tee shirts or carrying signs for some Trotskeyite organization such as the ISO or ANSWER.

Immigration Revisted

Since the death of the immigration bill, the fate of the 12 million illegal aliens is in limbo. There are press reports that the government is considering new measures to crack down on employers employing illegals, while other reports state that the many are looking to return home. Meanwhile, frustrated at the inability of the federal government to act, many municipalities are taking matters into their own hands. Most seem to be using local law enforcement to arrest illegals. New Haven, Connecticut, on the otter hand, is considering granting all illegals local identity cards. A New York City Council member is proposing a similar program.

The problem of illegal immigration will not go away overnight. You cannot deport 12 million people, yet it is clear that the country needs to come to grips with the problem. I supported the immigration reform bill that was introduced earlier this year, but now realize that the bill was a large part of the problem. So what to do?

1. Recognize that a comprehensive bill is not necessary, incremental steps are fine.
2. Do not try to be secretive, hold hearings and make the process as open as possible.
3. Recognize that many people do not trust the government to enforce the bill when passed, so show enforcement now to get a bill later.
4. Recognize that not everyone who opposed the bill is a racist member of the Klan. Most who opposed the bill had real concerns, maybe overly emotional concerns, but concerns that need to be addressed.
5. Don't try and micromanage immigration.
6. Recognize that you can build a fence 100 feet highs and surround the country with sharks with lasers on their heads, and people will still try and sneak in.

There will eventually be an amnesty. The best we can do is try and avoid the immigration meltdown of the last 20 years.

Immigration Bill Passes Cloture

The immigration bill passed cloture and that sound you heard was the storm getting started on the right side of the blog sphere. While I am a supporter of the bill, I understand the reason for the opposition. A large part of it is that, frankly, no one trusts President Bush any more. The bill was sold as amnesty (without using the word) coupled with enforcement. No one believes that there will be meaningful enforcement (though it could be argued that enforcement at the border has never been better). Furthermore, the behavior of some of the supporters of the bill has been horrendous.

The Daily Kos, the premier left wing blog, which you would think would be interested in the issue, seems not to care. The most recent post on immigration is one from June 25th setting forth a progressive case against the bill. The argument is that it will depress wages.

While current the immigration issue is tearing apart the GOP, the longer it goes, its effects will be felt by the Democrats also. One of the Democrats key constituents, African Americans, may find themselves in competition with recent immigrants and guest workers for jobs. And while the heavily immigrant unions such as the Service Workers support immigration reform, other unions may see immigration as a threat.

Immigration has no easy and good answers. Both parties need this to be over quickly.

Bush's Political Capital

Instapundit thinks President Bush as squandered the last of his political capital on immigration. The immigration fight appears to be the last straw for many conservatives , and those that have not already deserted him, are on their way out. Many of the freshman Democrats are more of the conservative "blue dog" variety -- Senator Webb for example is more of an old time populist/economic nationalist and has little in common with the latte drinking yuppie liberals who dominate the Democrats today. They will not support this bill. But the real question should be did President Bush have any political capital left at all?

President Bush has thrown out a Hail Mary to try and salvage some legacy, and it looks like it will fail. The bill is extremely unpopular and even though I support it I can understand why. If you are a conservative, do you trust this president to follow up on the promised enforcement. Most likely the next president is a Democrat. If it turns out to be a liberal such as Obama or Edwards, will there be the follow through on enforcement? And if it is Hillary Clinton, considering that the Clinton years saw an explosion in the number of illegal immigrants, can she be trusted with enforcement?

For many conservatives, the answer seems to be no -- they believe that enforcement will not occur tomorrow, so they are refusing to support amnesty today.

And Bush has gotten very little for his gamble. The Democrats will not support him on Iraq of course and some Democrats are now calling for a withdrawal from Afghanistan. Considering that Karl Rove is supposed to be some sort of super genius, one wonders if Bush was just lucky for all this time. The tone deafness, even to his own base, continues to be extraordinary.

Soldier Field as a Lesson in Immigration

I was at Soldier Field Sunday to watch the US play Mexico in the Gold Cup Final. It was a great game, and my kids enjoyed themselves, though I do not think are exactly certain what was going on. But as I sat there I actually had a quick thought about the immigration controversy.

Pessimists would note that most of the crowd in Chicago was rooting for Mexico and wearing green. But I also noted Hispanic fans rooting for the US (and by the end yelling things in Spanish at the Mexican fans). I also saw a lot of people with BOTH US/Mexican jersey's or flags or face paint. There also were families where the parents were dressed in green and the kids in red and blue.

What this really says is that the concerns about lack of assimilation are overstated. Yes, it will be difficult. And unlike past waves of immigration, the source of the immigrants is close by and most come from one particular country (i.e. Mexico). Yet the impulse to assimilate is also very strong. And unlike past waves of immigration, the Mexican subculture has always been a part of US culture. There has always been intermarriage and cross culture contacts.

If the current immigration bill is accepted, it will also allow for Mexicans to work here and more easily go home when they wish -- right now, it is so difficult to go home that once an illegal gets to the United States, they stay until caught or dead.

Sitting in Soldier Field may have made me think about how difficult these questions are. One problem with the immigration debate is how quickly insults are thrown. Is you support the bill, you are accuse of supporting amnesty or throwing away American sovereignty. If you oppose the bill, you are a racist. But it is not that easy. It is about parents and children who may end up with very different world views -- a mother who puts up an icon of Our Lady of Guadalupe while her daughter puts up the latest boy band. America is a synthesis and that synthesis takes time, but it will come.

And as usual, we beat Mexico 2-1.

The Immigrants We Know

Given my beliefs, I am often accused of being an "open borders" type. And I admit there is some truth to that. I believe we need a combination of enforcement, amnesty and a guest worker program to solve what right now is a huge problem.

But it strikes me that people are opposed to "immigrants" as a concept. Everyone knows immigrants and even the most intractable anti-immigration person can point to an immigrant they either work with, or friendly with or hire for some job. The problem is not the immigrant we know, but those we do not. The nameless, faceless throngs you see at job sites and around town or maybe just read about. A family of five immigrants living down the block from you is not scary. 12 million illegal immigrants are.

Immigration

The immigration bill looks back from the dead, and no one seems happy. According to a Zoby poll. only 3% of respondents are happy with Congress's handling of the issue, only 9% are happy with the president's. Only 38% of respondents support the bill (and I am one who does).

The problem ultimately is that no one trusts the government on this issue. The president has mishandled so many issues that his mishandling of this issue has destroyed whatever political capital he had left. Congress looks little better.

But what is to be done? There are 12 million illegals in the United States. You cannot wish them away or deport them overnight. And no matter how strong the fence and is you post the entire Army on the Mexican border, people will still get through.

Jonathan Rauch suggests an alternative in Reason Magazine. Based on the past several years of economic data, he suggests increasing the number of legal immigrants by about 500,000 per year. And do not limit the new visas to highly skilled people, current illegal immigration trends show that the economy needs unskilled and semi-skilled immigrants as much if not more than skilled ones. He makes sense, provided the plan was implemented with stronger enforcement. Of course, the fact that it makes sense means it will get nowhere in Washington.