Fred Thompson on the Choice

Back during the GOP YouTube debate, I noted that Fred Thompson was a better non candidate than a candidate. And as his campaign wound down towards its unsatisfying finish in South Carolina, I noted that his supporters seemed to want it more than he did.

Now non-candidate Fred is releasing an electoral appeal.



(HT - Public Secrets)

I have noticed a bit of commentary in the conservative Blogosphere about this appeal, most from former supporters tinged with some regret that Thompson did not make a bigger splash on the GOP race. Thompson was one candidate who could have gone toe to toe with Obama on rhetorical flourishes. (As an aside, "rhetorical flourishes" is my new favorite phrase).

No matter the outcome next week, I hope we will see more of Thompson's commentary.

Fred's Last Stand?

It seems that Fred Thompson has decided to go all for broke in South Carolina. Here is his video announcement even before New Hampshire.



The polls show that Thompson is fighting Romney for third place in the state. His hoped for break through has not quite happened, though in this strange primary season who knows. If the posters in NRO's the Corner are to be believed, the Thompson rallies are enthusiastic and well attended.

You have to think that a poor showing in South Carolina will mark the end of Thompson's campaign. He may stay on through Super Tuesday hoping to win Tennessee (I imagine his delegate list is made up of old friends and supporters, and he will want to get them to the convention). But you have tho think he will quietly shut down operations.

One problem Thompson is facing is that his supporters seem to want it more than he does.

This may sound strange, but he fact that his supporters seem to want it more than Thompson himself does is, in fact, something that appeals to me. Thompson is probably my second choice right now, because he strikes me as a nice dull Cincinnatus as opposed to a rock star wannabe.

I wonder if Thompson's plan from the beginning has been to run for Vice President.

One Third of my Third Worst Fear

One third of my third worst fear has come true. Thompson seemed to be surging in South Carolina and Giuliani is hanging on in Florida.

We really won't see a brokered convention, will we?

My Third Worst Fear

My worst fear is an HRC-Giuliani general election

My second worst fear is Mike Huckabee getting the nomination. Not just because he will lose, but because he might win.

So what is my third worst fear? That Mitt Romney wins Michigan, Fred Thompson wins South Carolina, and Rudy Giuliani wins Florida. The result is that NO ONE has momentum going into Super Tuesday. Those five pretty much split the delegates and no one ends up as the clear nominee.

Pundits have been dreaming about this since 1980, when Ted Kennedy tried to release the delegates. The last time a winner was not certain going into a convention was in 1976 when Reagan came within a whisper of knocking off Ford. (I actually remember watching the convention with my parents in a hotel room in Cooperstown).

Back in the old days, before McCain Feingold, the conventions were early in the summer. This gave the parties time to choose a candidate and still have a real long campaign, in the days when the candidate was actually chosen at the convention. Now the conventions keep getting pushed back as the nominee is known, and this way they can hold off making it official, allowing money to be saved for the general election. BUT if it is late August and there are two or three candidates that think they can win, what happens then?

Early Results

According to Fox, the Democrats Big Three are in a close race.

On the GOP side, Huckabee's supporters have come out in droves at 35%, with Romney second at 23%. Thompson is third. If this holds, Romney is in a lot of trouble. Huckabee does not have the money or the constituency in New Hampshire, where McCain is in the lead and growing. A distant second place finish and Romney is done.

The You Tube Debate

Well, I finally watched a debated -- or at least most of it. I really like the You Tube format, although I think people should dress better if they want to ask candidates questions. The questions did not seem to be as silly as during the Democrat's debate (even the Cheney animation was a serious question, and the Red Sox v. Yankees question was a funny way to end it all).

The question on "don't ask don't tell" and the seemingly forever rebuttal by the questioner lost me. It also turns out that the questioner, a retired Army general, is connected to the Clinton campaign.

McCain came off extremely well. He seems to have done well in the debates so far. He is calm, focused, and shows both his competency and his principles. The showed his incredible grasp of foreign policy as well as taking the torture question head on. Yes, this man should be president.

Another who did well was Huckabee. He had the best answer of the night -- what would Jesus do about the death penalty? " Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office." Huckabee, however, continues to run as the great social conservative hope and sounded like he was interviewing for a pastor's job. I think he will end up if not winning in Iowa and maybe South Carolina, coming a close second.

Romney did not impress me. He seems too polished, too much answering questions based on what he thinks will be popular.

Thompson seemed very relaxed and answered the questions well. Thompson was a better non candidate than candidate and has lost much of his early bounce. So maybe he was relaxed as he was trying out for VP. He (and the other candidates) really punted the Rebel flag question though.

Giuliani stumbled at times. He was expecting to skip Iowa and New Hampshire and concentrate on Florida with the hope of pulling off an upset in South Carolina. But he is in trouble in the early states now. The pressure is on him and he knows it.

Ron Paul was, well, Ron Paul. The Paulistas reacted, well, as you would expect.

We should have a pool as to when Hunter and Tancredo drop out. My wife (not a Republican) has no clue who they are.

In the end, McCain won and Huckabee really helped himself. Let's hope we see more of this type of format.