Twice in one week

So the GOP proves that maybe it is not stuck on stupid. First, the House GOP unanimously voted NO on the misnamed "Stimulus Bill." Then the RNC elected Michael Steele as chair.

Maybe there is some life in the old party after all.

Ted Stevens

Guilty.

Earlier this month I said I can be a conservative or I can be a Republican, I cannot be both. This is one of those times. Stevens should have been forced to resign by the GOP months ago, we should have been retired off years ago. What do you expect from a system that views government as the font of all that is good and holy.

I do not care if this is the 60th seat for the Democrats. As long as the GOP protected pork laden corrupt politicians, the GOP deserves to lose.

So what do I think of the Republicans?

The Sarah Palin pick will either go down as the most brilliant, or most disastrous, election decisions in history. I really do not see any middle ground. And that is strange, because usually, vice-presidential choices do not matter. Did Dick Cheney give GWB a boost? Did George Bush do anything for Ronald Reagan? Walter Mondale still lost in a landslide despite putting Ferraro on the ticket (and if I recall correct, Reagan even won Ferraro's district).

But Palin may have an effect. Let's be frank, the conservative base of the GOP has not shared my enthusiasm for John McCain. Governor Palin may have in one speech energized the base of the GOP in a way he could not.

I actually have been talking about her quite a bit, though it seems I mentioned her only twice in passing on this blog. She was my "hoped for" pick, though I could not really see him doing it. My Obama supporting wife has been hearing about Palin for about 5 months and when she saw the smile on my face her first words were "Palin?"

So why am I so excited? I am not an evangelical or politically a social conservative. But Palin has an appeal across constituencies. To me, I see her as a radical reformer, who took on the Alaska political establishment and a republican Senator I do not like. I also see her as someone who can make the case for drilling for more oil here, to take the pressure off until new sources of fuel are developed.

And while I can point to her as a reformer, she comes across as a practically intelligent, quirky, strong willed woman. I come a family filled with practically intelligent, quirky, strong willed women (though they are a bit difficent in the moose killing department).

Then she gave that speech.

As for McCain's speech, McCain was being McCain. That is who he is. People know him. He cannot, and should not, try to match Obama's oratorical brilliance or rock star appeal. But he should use the contrast to his advantage -- he must cast himself as a Cinncinatus in comparison to Obama's Gracchus.

In any event, this is really Obama's race to lose, not McCain's to win. Obama should be up by a lot more, considering the general level of discontent but he is not. . McCain's best hope is that the debates get Obama away from the teleprompter. That is where McCain can shine, and Obama has had some difficulties.

But even that may not be enough. Still, I can have the AUDACITY to HOPE that McCain will CHANGE the results of this election, right?

Deadlocked Convention!

It seems funny, but back in January, many people, including me, thought we might be seeing a contested GOP convention.

IMAO has tracked down a wire service report which today sounds like comedy, but was in January, the height of conventional wisdom.

Where have all the leftists gone?

My cyber friend Rodak, in response to my post regarding the Buckley – Vidal commentaries during 1968 wonders (and I am paraphrasing here) where have all the leftists gone? At least, why aren't any of them appearing on TV these days?

Let it be noted that despite the supposed "liberal bias" of the MainStreamMedia, figures on the true left are never seen on mainstream television. If not for C-SPAN, figures like Noam Chomsky and Howard Zinn would never be on TV at all. All of the neocons, and the rest of Wm. F. Buckley's spawn, by contrast, are on constantly. There are still left-wingers alive in the wild, but you have to seek them out for yourself; they are not brought to you free of charge by the MSM, as are the generations of Kristols and Podhoretzes.

And I have to agree with him, though I believe for slightly a different reason than he probably does. I believe a big part of it is how you view politics in America – is it left v. right or Democrats v. GOP? While the Democrats are the left and the GOP the right, those two possibilities are not really the same thing.

The conservative movement has been connected with the GOP since 1964. While there are dissenters (Pat Buchanan being the most prominent), most professional conservatives are seen as somehow surrogates for the GOP. This is not the case with the professional leftists, such as Chomsky and Zinn. Neither of those two could ever be considered surrogates for the Democratic Party. So considering the realities of our two-party system, in order to appear relevant, the media wants to have is a Democrat debating a Republican. They cannot fit into this dichotomy a debate between, say the left wing Chomsky and a libertarian such as Justin Raimondo.

A second problem is the decline of the "public intellectual." And by that, I mean someone who has a wide range of interests and knowledge and is not simply a specialist trying to discuss a narrow field or a political hack trying to score points. No matter what your thoughts on Buckley's or Vidal's politics, they both were polished intellectuals who could make an argument by reference to history and were well versed in high culture. Is there really anyone who can fit that mold today?

Looking at CNN's coverage of mini Tuesday, it seemed to me that the panelists were either political types or journalists. Bill Kristol was also there to be sure. But the debate was being framed as GOP v. Obama supporters v. Clinton supporters. In the general election it will be framed as GOP v. Democrat. So you will find a few GOP pundits and political types and have them face off against a few Democratic pundits and politics types. And the discussion will unfortunately be somewhat superficial and center around scoring points, rather than debating ideas.

McCain in! Democrats still arguing

Who would have thought back last Fall, we would be here now. That the GOP would be set really since Super Tuesday and the Democrats fighting out increasingly ugly?

McCain gave a very good and gracious speech. He cannot go toe to toe with Obama on style, so he has to appeal to something deeper. I am biased of course, but I think he is doing that. And I know, with things still a mess on the Democrats side, he is smiling widely tonight.

More Thoughts on Vice Presidential Choices

A new blog "VEEP WATCH" has started to look at the vice presidential "races."

I have noticed that Sarah Palin has been getting more looks. Also getting mentioned are former Maryland lieutenant governor Michael Steele and former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts. The thought is that Clinton or Obama have the novelty factor, which Watts or Steele would to some extent neutralize.

I like both Watts and Steele. However, I do not think one term as a lieutenant governor makes someone qualified for vice president. Had Steele been elected to the Senate in 2006, maybe things would be different. As for Watts, he has been out of the public eye for a while. Both are eloquent spokesmen for conservative ideals. While I hope they both get back into public view, neither will be the GOP's vice presidential nominee.

Is it too Early to be Thinking of Running Mates?

With Mitt Romney dropping out of the race today, it is obvious to everyone that John McCain will be the Republican nominee. His VP pick is very, very important.

1. Due to his age, he needs to pick someone young enough to handle the rigors of office (in effect, McCain's VP is going to be the ceremonial head of state in many ways, the one doing all the traveling and visiting)

2. Because of his age, McCain also needs someone who can credibly step into the office on no notice.

3. McCain needs to make various different conservative constituencies happy

4. McCain needs someone who has not spent too much time in Washington

This rules out Mike Huckabee, who only makes certain social conservatives happy and has no foreign policy experience. It also rules out people like Colin Powell and Joe Lieberman, who appeal to the same voter demographic as McCain.

Based on these criteria, I think that South Carolina governor Mark Sanford should be top of his list. Why? Going back to my criteria

1. Sanford is 47 and charismatic

2. He can point to his time in the House and as governor to show he has experience and can run a government.

3. South Carolina has a lot of social conservatives, but Sanford has also made a name for himself as a pro-business fiscal conservative.

4. He only spent 6 years in Washington. He also has excellent private sector experience.

At the McCain rally last week I attended last week, I do not think McCain mentioned Sanford by name, but he did note that South Carolina has an energetic economy, thanks to good government that lets the private sector take off. (He was making a comparison with Michigan, and its poor business environment.)

I would also include governors Crist and Pawlenty, especially as Florida is a key state and Minnesota is possibly a swing state (though Pawlenty was twice only narrowly elected).

I also would consider Alaska governor Sarah Palin but she is a first term governor of a remote state.

So Sanford should be the first choice

McCain

McCain is talking now. He is relaxed, happy and joking. He says that he is the frontrunner. He is being magnanimous and mentioning Romney and Huckabee.

Now CNN is splitting the screen and going to Obama headquarters.

Huckabee

Huckabee is speaking on ABC News now. He does have the gift of gab.

Romney

There seem to be lots of third place finishes for Romney. Unless he wins California, he is done.

Getting Ready for the Results

McCain Rally

John McCain swung through Illinois on Friday. I attended the rally, though got there a little late. I was stuck in the back, practically in the lobby.

One of those blurs on the stage is the Senator (not a bad photo considering it was from my camera phone).

He seemed energized and ready to put the nomination away. But before us McCain supporters get to comfortable, the latest polls from California show that Romney is making a comeback there.

A couple of Ron Paul supporters showed up of course. One of them was whispering sweet nothings about illegal immigration and the gold standard in my ear.

But the Paulistas did not take away from the excitement McCain generated.

Ann Coulter Endorses Hillary Clinton

Well sort of. She has said that if John McCain is the GOP nominee, she is CAMPAIGNING for Hillary Clinton.

Why? Because Hillary would be stronger on anti-terrorism. One piece of her proof, McCain opposes waterboarding.

I have always thought that Coulter is either a Democratic Party mole or doing an extremely subtle piece of performance art. Either way, she is an embarassment.

Florida!

The day is finally here! All over Florida, old people drove to vote, after hitting the early bird special at Country Kitchen Buffet. And McCain is the winner.

By winning Florida, has McCain sewed up the nomination? Well, no. There are still lots of primaries, and Super Tuesday next week. But the establishment and conservative line has been that McCain won in New Hampshire and South Carolina because those states were "open" primaries -- independents and even some Democrats crossed over and voted for him.

But Florida was a closed primary -- only registered Republicans allowed. And McCain won. Now overwhelmingly., but enough.

So if Giuliani drops and endorses McCain, that should be enough to put McCain over the top.

Fred's Last Stand?

It seems that Fred Thompson has decided to go all for broke in South Carolina. Here is his video announcement even before New Hampshire.



The polls show that Thompson is fighting Romney for third place in the state. His hoped for break through has not quite happened, though in this strange primary season who knows. If the posters in NRO's the Corner are to be believed, the Thompson rallies are enthusiastic and well attended.

You have to think that a poor showing in South Carolina will mark the end of Thompson's campaign. He may stay on through Super Tuesday hoping to win Tennessee (I imagine his delegate list is made up of old friends and supporters, and he will want to get them to the convention). But you have tho think he will quietly shut down operations.

One problem Thompson is facing is that his supporters seem to want it more than he does.

This may sound strange, but he fact that his supporters seem to want it more than Thompson himself does is, in fact, something that appeals to me. Thompson is probably my second choice right now, because he strikes me as a nice dull Cincinnatus as opposed to a rock star wannabe.

I wonder if Thompson's plan from the beginning has been to run for Vice President.

"Give the People What They Want!"

The Michigan Primary shows why maybe I am crazy to think there really is a market for libertarianism in this country, my protestations to the contrary. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country, businesses are fleeing the state, and the economy is hard up. The candidates response? John McCain tells folks we need to do a better job retraining people. Mitt Romney promises to single-handedly rebuild the auto industry.

People blame the auto industry, yet, elsewhere in the US, the auto industry seems to be doing well. VW has decided to build another plant in the US and they are looking at sites down south, not in Michigan.

So maybe the issue is not the federal government but (i) the fact that US auto makers are not building cars people actually want to buy and (ii) that there is something wrong in Michigan's business environment.

But Romney decides pandering is better politics than truth. And he wins.

It reminds me of the moment I realized I could never be a good politician. As a college kid I got myself elected to the Nassau County Republican committee. This is not really a big deal really. There are two committee persons per election district (maybe 800 registered voters) of which about 400 were registered Republicans.

I ended up running unopposed, so there was no election.

When I was going door to door, I had someone complain simultaneously that (i) housing prices were too high on Long Island, (ii) Long Island was over developed, and (iii) that she could not sell her house for the price she wanted (which was too high). I told her she could take care of all three problems by halving the price of her house and taking the money, buy an open field and live in a tent. Then she would sell her house, reduce housing prices and prevent over development

She actually thought it was funny and decided to support me, but I knew I could not do this 400 times.

The Ron Paul Affair

I have not said anything regarding the Ron Paul Affair. The newsletters were obscure for the most part, though the issue was first raised by a Congressional opponent several years ago. At the time, it seemed like a one time screw up but New Republic has shown that the newsletters were an ongoing activity.

I do not think Ron Paul is a racist. And I accept his statement that someone else wrote the newsletters and he had little input or control. But he was indifferent to what was said in his name and showed poor judgment and poor management.

This leads to a larger question though -- namely, has the Ron Paul campaign been good or bad for the libertarian movement in America. Paul was NEVER going to be the GOP nominee. But Paul wants to talk about the fiscal policy and constitutionalism and changing American foreign policy. I had hoped that lead to a widening of the debate.

Instead, however, libertarianism again is shown to be a strange and alien political philosophy. I have never been a "movement" libertarian. Mostly, I think, this is due to the fact that libertarianism tends to shade off into strange places. It has always been more comfortable to consider myself a conservative for that reason.

The Paul campaign has again lead libertarianism down this road. Paul's supporters have a tendency to get in your face. And he has attracted a motley crew of 9/11 Truthers, new world order conspiracy theorists and other marginal types to his campaign. Even the "Don't Tase Me bro" guy is a Paul supporter.

This newsletter affair seems to go beyond the one article that has been discussed. Basically, you have a guy making money using his name to sell newsletters that contain things that are considered outside the realm of polite society. The articles are unsigned and give the impression that he either wrote them (which he did not) or that he gave his seal of approval.

I do not believe in censorship of ideas. Paul and his supporters can say what they feel like until they are blue in their collective faces. But this is yet more proof that Paul was the wrong champion of libertarian ideas in this election.

One Third of my Third Worst Fear

One third of my third worst fear has come true. Thompson seemed to be surging in South Carolina and Giuliani is hanging on in Florida.

We really won't see a brokered convention, will we?

My Third Worst Fear

My worst fear is an HRC-Giuliani general election

My second worst fear is Mike Huckabee getting the nomination. Not just because he will lose, but because he might win.

So what is my third worst fear? That Mitt Romney wins Michigan, Fred Thompson wins South Carolina, and Rudy Giuliani wins Florida. The result is that NO ONE has momentum going into Super Tuesday. Those five pretty much split the delegates and no one ends up as the clear nominee.

Pundits have been dreaming about this since 1980, when Ted Kennedy tried to release the delegates. The last time a winner was not certain going into a convention was in 1976 when Reagan came within a whisper of knocking off Ford. (I actually remember watching the convention with my parents in a hotel room in Cooperstown).

Back in the old days, before McCain Feingold, the conventions were early in the summer. This gave the parties time to choose a candidate and still have a real long campaign, in the days when the candidate was actually chosen at the convention. Now the conventions keep getting pushed back as the nominee is known, and this way they can hold off making it official, allowing money to be saved for the general election. BUT if it is late August and there are two or three candidates that think they can win, what happens then?