That looks to be about it

I guess that is it. I will call it early and say congratulations President Elect Obama.

EDITED to add -- it is true that it is a historic moment that the US elected a black president. I knew and hoped it would happen someday, though I hoped the president would be named Powell, Watts or Steele. But it is a moment.

Election Coverage

I have been watching the coverage on CNN and ABC. George Will is on ABC but most of the people they have on the panels are political types.

I wish we could have coverage like the Vidal -- Buckley battles in 1968.

Election Day

Well, I finally was able to vote. I snuck out of work about 5:15 and when I got to the polling place, there was no line. My sons wanted to help me vote, so my wife met me there. I quickly voted, then headed out for Italian food and wine.

Now watching the returns, I agree with Megan McArdle -- never again can someone say that a black man cannot get elected president.

The Endless Presidential Campaign

Thankfully, it is almost over. But the last several presidential campaigns, lasting for two years and where little actually gets said, it getting to be too much for me.

I have come to the conclusion that a parliamentary system may be better. The party leaders are chosen outside of the context of the campaign. They face each other across the aisle every debate and ask each other hard questions. While the parliaments have a required ending date, an election is chosen often prior to that time. The election campaign itself lasts a month.

At least it will soon end!

What will the crisis be?

As I have said before, I really like Senator Biden. Partly it is personal as he is the only major candidate for President or Vice President whom I have ever had a conversation with. Partly it is that he does seem to have a good head on his shoulders. But he does say some very strange things at time.

The blogosphere is ablaze of course with Senator Biden's latest -- a call to Senator Obama's supporters to "gird their loins" for a major crisis that President Obama will quickly need to face. Biden warned that "it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

Considering Senator Biden's seniority and his importance in the Senator oversight of foreign policy and intelligence, this has lead to concerns that something is currently up from Iran to Russia to Israel. Everyone knows that the president will face crises. That is THE job description and that has been the primary focus of Senator McCain's campaign (and lead Senator Clinton to run those silly 3 A.M. ads). But the tone and the language of the statement was so bizarre that it has seemingly spooked many people.

So what do I think? I believe that Senator Obama, if elected president, will need to look tough immediately. So I wonder if Senator Biden was laying the ground for an attack on Iran. Despite the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate which discounted Iran's nuclear capacities, there have been news reports that Iran could build a bomb by next year. Given that Obama has been seen from the beginning as the peace candidate (wrongly I think, given some of his statements on Afghanistan and Iran).

Last year, he had pledged (sort of) deep defense cuts, including cutting missile defense, yet in the debates, he said he supported missile defense.

So I think Biden is laying the ground for Obama early on taking a hawkish stance, something that will not be very popular with his base. Hence the warning that initially, it will not be certain President Obama is doing the right thing.

I also wonder if the draft will be reinstated. Except it will not be called the "draft" but rather given some PC moniker such as "Volunteers in Service for the World". It will be "voluntary" but in such a way that it will be difficult to get student aid, student loans or other basic benefits without doing the service. And it will not entirely be military, but I could see national service including options to do Peace Corps or Americorps type service.

At this stage it is all speculation of course and I hope I am wrong. Hopefully, President Obama faces no crisis and everything comes out like roses.

Looking at the Election

For the first time in months, I am actually holding out hope that Senator McCain will actually win this thing. The Obama campaign seems to be in a melt-down phase, the media is having a complete fit over Sarah Pallin and the McCain seems to have found his voice.

Already, conservatives are declaring victory and starting victory laps.

Of course, none of this takes into account that it is still seven weeks to Election Day. Much can happen between now and then. The credit crunch could flare into a full blown meltdown. War could flare up again in Georgia. The Middle East could have an oil shutdown -- who knows.

The latest is that McCain is supposedly closing the gap in NEW YORK.

I find it hard to believe. The last time a Republican won New York was in 1984, when Reagan won about 54% of the vote. The last time a Republican won New York City was Calvin Cooolige in 1924.

Back in 1988, when I was volunteering on the Bush campaign, the last weekend, the office was awash with rumors that New York was winnable. We were told that Bush was only 3% behind Dukakis in Queens and that statewide, internal polling showed a statistical tie. In the end, Dukakis won the state with about 52% of the vote and won Queens pretty handily if I recall.

One thing to note is that while New York has usually been a reliably Democratic state, it was not always with the big margins we saw in the past few elections. Granted, that was during the days of the Rockefeller Republicans, but the state was usually "in play." However, given the changes in the state's demography and the past few elections, I cannot see McCain having a real chance at winning. While I have seen lots of Obama bumper stickers ans signs since I moved to Park Slope, I have yet to see any evidence that there is another McCain voter in my neighborhood. Even the suburbs have changed in political makeup. What McCain can hope for is to force Obama to spend time and effort here, instead of Virgina and Colorado.

[edited to fix my public school spelling]

Free Rides to the Airport

"If McCain gets in, it's going to be very, very dangerous," she says. "It's a critical time, but I have faith in the American people. If they prove me wrong, I'll be checking out a move to Italy. Maybe Canada, I don't know. We're at an abyss."

So says Susan Sarandon.

I never got the "I'm moving to X if Y gets elected" thing. I guarantee if HRC or Obama get elected, I am not moving to a foreign country. It is just plain silly. And haven't we heard all this before? Every celebrity seemed to threaten to move to wherever when Bush was elected then reelected. Other than Pierre Salinger, none of them did. And Salinger was not really a celebrity and he was living in France when he made the threat anyway, so he should not count.

Here is my offer -- I will give a ride to the airport to anyone who threatens to move if their favored candidate loses. So SHUT UP AND JUST LEAVE ALREADY!!!

Where have all the leftists gone?

My cyber friend Rodak, in response to my post regarding the Buckley – Vidal commentaries during 1968 wonders (and I am paraphrasing here) where have all the leftists gone? At least, why aren't any of them appearing on TV these days?

Let it be noted that despite the supposed "liberal bias" of the MainStreamMedia, figures on the true left are never seen on mainstream television. If not for C-SPAN, figures like Noam Chomsky and Howard Zinn would never be on TV at all. All of the neocons, and the rest of Wm. F. Buckley's spawn, by contrast, are on constantly. There are still left-wingers alive in the wild, but you have to seek them out for yourself; they are not brought to you free of charge by the MSM, as are the generations of Kristols and Podhoretzes.

And I have to agree with him, though I believe for slightly a different reason than he probably does. I believe a big part of it is how you view politics in America – is it left v. right or Democrats v. GOP? While the Democrats are the left and the GOP the right, those two possibilities are not really the same thing.

The conservative movement has been connected with the GOP since 1964. While there are dissenters (Pat Buchanan being the most prominent), most professional conservatives are seen as somehow surrogates for the GOP. This is not the case with the professional leftists, such as Chomsky and Zinn. Neither of those two could ever be considered surrogates for the Democratic Party. So considering the realities of our two-party system, in order to appear relevant, the media wants to have is a Democrat debating a Republican. They cannot fit into this dichotomy a debate between, say the left wing Chomsky and a libertarian such as Justin Raimondo.

A second problem is the decline of the "public intellectual." And by that, I mean someone who has a wide range of interests and knowledge and is not simply a specialist trying to discuss a narrow field or a political hack trying to score points. No matter what your thoughts on Buckley's or Vidal's politics, they both were polished intellectuals who could make an argument by reference to history and were well versed in high culture. Is there really anyone who can fit that mold today?

Looking at CNN's coverage of mini Tuesday, it seemed to me that the panelists were either political types or journalists. Bill Kristol was also there to be sure. But the debate was being framed as GOP v. Obama supporters v. Clinton supporters. In the general election it will be framed as GOP v. Democrat. So you will find a few GOP pundits and political types and have them face off against a few Democratic pundits and politics types. And the discussion will unfortunately be somewhat superficial and center around scoring points, rather than debating ideas.

The Anchoress Asks -- "Who do you Trust?"

The Anchoress has decided a new way to decide who should be president of the United States. First, accept that it is the most powerful position on Earth.

Then look at these pictures and ask your gut -- who do you trust to have the words "the most powerful person on Earth" after their name.