Sunday, October 26, 2008

What will the crisis be?

As I have said before, I really like Senator Biden. Partly it is personal as he is the only major candidate for President or Vice President whom I have ever had a conversation with. Partly it is that he does seem to have a good head on his shoulders. But he does say some very strange things at time.

The blogosphere is ablaze of course with Senator Biden's latest -- a call to Senator Obama's supporters to "gird their loins" for a major crisis that President Obama will quickly need to face. Biden warned that "it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

Considering Senator Biden's seniority and his importance in the Senator oversight of foreign policy and intelligence, this has lead to concerns that something is currently up from Iran to Russia to Israel. Everyone knows that the president will face crises. That is THE job description and that has been the primary focus of Senator McCain's campaign (and lead Senator Clinton to run those silly 3 A.M. ads). But the tone and the language of the statement was so bizarre that it has seemingly spooked many people.

So what do I think? I believe that Senator Obama, if elected president, will need to look tough immediately. So I wonder if Senator Biden was laying the ground for an attack on Iran. Despite the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate which discounted Iran's nuclear capacities, there have been news reports that Iran could build a bomb by next year. Given that Obama has been seen from the beginning as the peace candidate (wrongly I think, given some of his statements on Afghanistan and Iran).

Last year, he had pledged (sort of) deep defense cuts, including cutting missile defense, yet in the debates, he said he supported missile defense.

So I think Biden is laying the ground for Obama early on taking a hawkish stance, something that will not be very popular with his base. Hence the warning that initially, it will not be certain President Obama is doing the right thing.

I also wonder if the draft will be reinstated. Except it will not be called the "draft" but rather given some PC moniker such as "Volunteers in Service for the World". It will be "voluntary" but in such a way that it will be difficult to get student aid, student loans or other basic benefits without doing the service. And it will not entirely be military, but I could see national service including options to do Peace Corps or Americorps type service.

At this stage it is all speculation of course and I hope I am wrong. Hopefully, President Obama faces no crisis and everything comes out like roses.


William R. Barker said...

He's talking about Taiwan, Anthony.


P.S. - Dear Homeland Security: Please DO NOT shut down Anthony's blog.

Respectfully... BILL

(Yes... THE Bill.)


Anthony said...

SO Bill, thanks for not sending me to a reeducation camp.

As for Taiwan, what do you think will happen? Will China invade and Obama do nothing, or will China invade and the US does something?

Of course, we are all speculating and talking out our hindquarters right now.

Rodak said...

Biden's prediction was not bizarre at all. In fact, the same thing (that the new POTUS will be tested, whoever wins) had already been said by McCain supporters to shore up their theory that McCain would be ready on DAY ONE and Obama would need on the job training. This is just s.o.p. jump on anything anybody says. Both sides do it. We should know better than to take it seriously.