What will the crisis be?

As I have said before, I really like Senator Biden. Partly it is personal as he is the only major candidate for President or Vice President whom I have ever had a conversation with. Partly it is that he does seem to have a good head on his shoulders. But he does say some very strange things at time.

The blogosphere is ablaze of course with Senator Biden's latest -- a call to Senator Obama's supporters to "gird their loins" for a major crisis that President Obama will quickly need to face. Biden warned that "it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

Considering Senator Biden's seniority and his importance in the Senator oversight of foreign policy and intelligence, this has lead to concerns that something is currently up from Iran to Russia to Israel. Everyone knows that the president will face crises. That is THE job description and that has been the primary focus of Senator McCain's campaign (and lead Senator Clinton to run those silly 3 A.M. ads). But the tone and the language of the statement was so bizarre that it has seemingly spooked many people.

So what do I think? I believe that Senator Obama, if elected president, will need to look tough immediately. So I wonder if Senator Biden was laying the ground for an attack on Iran. Despite the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate which discounted Iran's nuclear capacities, there have been news reports that Iran could build a bomb by next year. Given that Obama has been seen from the beginning as the peace candidate (wrongly I think, given some of his statements on Afghanistan and Iran).

Last year, he had pledged (sort of) deep defense cuts, including cutting missile defense, yet in the debates, he said he supported missile defense.

So I think Biden is laying the ground for Obama early on taking a hawkish stance, something that will not be very popular with his base. Hence the warning that initially, it will not be certain President Obama is doing the right thing.

I also wonder if the draft will be reinstated. Except it will not be called the "draft" but rather given some PC moniker such as "Volunteers in Service for the World". It will be "voluntary" but in such a way that it will be difficult to get student aid, student loans or other basic benefits without doing the service. And it will not entirely be military, but I could see national service including options to do Peace Corps or Americorps type service.

At this stage it is all speculation of course and I hope I am wrong. Hopefully, President Obama faces no crisis and everything comes out like roses.

Nuclear Decline?

Is the Department of Defense worried about our aging nuclear arsenal? This report argues Secretary Gates is.

The nature of the world has changed since the end of the Cold War. For example, there no longer remains a justification for keeping nuclear weapons in Europe. With Iran I am an advocate of the "Godfather" strategy. Think about the "peace conference" scene in the original Godfather. Don Corleone says that he will make peace, but he needs to make arrangements to get his son Michael home from his Sicilian exile. Corleone says that he is a superstitious man, and that if Michael is "hit by a bolt of lightening" he will blame some of the people in the room.

Our policy with Iran should be similar Yes I agree, try to cut off imports of items which can be used for their nuclear program, but otherwise explain the Godfather strategy. Make it clear that if Hamas or some other group gets hold of a nuclear weapon, we may blame Iran. This hopefully will motivate them to make sure no one decides to freelance nuclear strategy.

Isn't this debate . . .

Isn't this debate supposed to be about national security.

Updated -- they are now finally talking about Iraq.

Now Afghanistan. I wonder if the solution to Afghanistan is to draw a line and kill what comes over. Iraq is basically stuck in the 1950s. Afghanistan is basically a 7th Century country.

Updated -- McCain is now hitting Obama on Pakistan. It is a failed state.

Updated -- Obama is talking tough on Iran.

Updated -- "I don't even have a seal yet." Did Obama take his seal?

At least Obama is recognizing Iran is an enemy.

Updated -- Obama sees Russia as a threat to the region. So much for a noninterventionist foreign policy. Georgia for NATO. But no Cold War.

Update -- Obama and McCain agree on clean coal -- I hope he told Biden.

Update -- Obama says yes on missile defense.

Well it is over.

Life Imitates The Onion

The Onion: Al-Qeada Takes on 9/11 Truthers

Life: Al-Qaeda whines that they really did 9/11 -- and that the conspiracy theories are really a plot by Iran (in cahoots with the USA!) to make al-Qaeda look bad. (granted according to the article, the tape has not been authenticated yet and I am sure a Truther will say it is a CIA/Mossad/Stone Cutter forgery).