Things blow up

"Something", well, two things, blew up in Pakistan today and it seems like it was a UAV launched missile attack. President Obama seems to be going after al Qeada on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. I would say he is going after bin Laden, but you can't kill someone who is already dead.

I think bin Laden has left us for the hereafter. With most al Qeada tapes, you get fairly new video footage and speeches. With bin Laden, you get recycled footage of him walking around some rocks while someone claiming to be him does a voice over. And in some cases, the voice over is just speaking in generalities, they rarely mention Obama by name or talk about specific current events.

Bin Laden is either dead (my guess) or in really bad shape. I think he died in such a way that no one will ever be sure (for example he died in a cave collapse thanks to a bunker buster). He is just a few wisps of DNA under 100,000 tons of rock.

It was never really about him, and it was a mistake to make it about him.

Anyway, I have looked around at some of the left side blogs to see how this is playing. For the most part, it has been seen positively.

The Huffington Post for a while had this as their main news item with the headline:

COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF
FIRST MISSILE STRIKES LAUNCHED SINCE OBAMA TOOK OATH

The site had a split picture, President Obama on one side wagging his finger and looking all stern and serious and Islamic Rage Boy's idiot Pakistani cousin on the other side acting all, well, full of rage (other than soccer balls and rage, does Pakistan actually produce anything?). I tried wadding through the comments to see how this was playing to HP's fans, but it is useless. I think 3/4s of the commenters there are trolls (of both left and right).

In any event, I understand why it is being done. When Bush was president I was uneasy about these attacks in Pakistan. That country is barely a country and I worry that these attacks might take down the government and lead to anarchy. By the same token, Waziristan is where the bad guys are, and the Pakistani government barley has any authority there.

I also believe that these attacks take place with a wink and a nod from the Pakistani government. They get to act all enraged to placate domestic audiences while getting rid of bad guys.

On Taylor Marsh's site one of the commenters wonders if President Obama knew about this before hand, or if this was simply a carryover of Bush's ROE. I can understand why some on the left would feel angry at these attacks continuing (though, from my quick view, it is positive, including from Marsh herself).

It is hard to believe now, but back in 2000, Bush promised a "more humble" foreign policy and I remember being annoyed that a day or so after his inauguration, the Air Force bombed some site in Iraq. I remember thinking that it must have been simply a continuation of Clinton's ROE and that Bush knew nothing of it beforehand (ah, those innocent days!) and that he would change the ROE.*

By the same token, this is the policy that President Obama said he would pursue.

Now you see why I pray for the president? Who would want this job?


* Yes -- to preempt the comments, I supported the invasion of Iraq, I supported the surge and I hope that our troops can now leave Iraq, and that Iraq will be mostly stable and most democratic. If you asked me at 8:58 a.m. on September 11, 2001 what my thoughts on Iraq were, I would have said end US enforcement of the no fly zone and come up with a sanction regime that allowed Iraq to buy and sell everything except weapon programs. 9/11 temporarily stopped the drift toward non-interventionism that I started around 1992.

My Pledges and Promises to the President

Now that President Obama is sworn in, how should conservatives act? I have posted about this previously. I obviously think that we need to be adult about it. By the same token, we should not roll over and die.

Someone named Andy Levy, who I admit I never heard of before, set forth a list of "Don'ts" for conservatives in the Age of Obama that should be required reading for all on the right.

And after looking at the celebrity pledge*, I decide I too would make a list of pledges to President Obama.

• I pledge I will be adult and principled. If you propose something I can agree with, I will support it. If you propose something I disagree with, I will oppose it but based on principles, not narrow partisanship.
  
  
• I pledge that I will ignore every silly conspiracy theory regarding you (including but not limited to, theories that you were born in Kenya, that Malcom X was your father (yes, someone is actually claiming that), that you are a secret Muslim, and any other crazy theory that ends up in my e-mail in box).
  
  
• I pledge that I will not engage in "assassination porn."
  
  
• When you prepare to send troops in harm's way,** I pledge I will look at the evidence with dispassion.
  
  
• If Congress approves sending troops into harms way based on "conventional wisdom", even if I opposed it, I pledge I will not accuse you of lying.
  
  
• If you send troops into harms way, even if I opposed it, I pledge I will support victory. I know that the quickest way to get the troops home is through winning. I also believe that once American arms have been engaged, places where we were successful*** are generally better off than places where we were not.****
  
  
• On the off chance that you and I ever meet, I pledge that I will be respectful, even though I may ask you a question that you find "hard." Please note that I am not being disrespectful, I just have a question.
  

In short, I promise not to act for the next 4-8 years like those on the unhinged left acted for the past 8. I also promise to chasten those on the right who act unhinged.

I also promise not to be your servant. You are mine. I promise not to make you forget that.

I also promise to pray for you.


* Some friends and my wife objected to my description of the video as creepy. If you watch it without feeling the same way, no matter your politics, you have a stronger stomach than I do.

** And you will. The last president not to send troops into harm's way was, I believe, Herbert Hoover, but even he inherited a few occupations.

*** For example, Western Europe, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Grenada, Panama, the Balkans.

**** For example, Vietnam, Cambodia, Lebanon.

Why Pray for the President?

Why pray for the president?

In the last few days, we have seen:

• War in Gaza
  
• A North Korean general on TV threatening the South
  
• Rumors of Somali terrorists in the US trying to disrupt the inauguration
  
• Hugo Chavez talking about Obama's "stench" (seriously, this guy should be a comedian, with oil now trading in the $30s, he may be due for a new career soon)
  
• Someone claiming to be Osama bin Laden releases a tape threatening Obama (I think OBL is dead, but the threat of al-Qaeda remains)
  
• Iranian rent a mobs setting fire to pictures of Obama and signing up for martyrdom operations
  
• Rumors that Saudis are in talks with Pakistan to buy nuclear weapons to counteract the threat of Iran's nuclear program (this has been floating around for years)
  
• The UK threatening to nationalize its banks.

And let's not forget the day after Obama's election, the Russians announced they were moving nuclear missiles to Kalingrad and the ongoing economic crisis.

Why does ANYONE want this job?

My personal safety and prosperity depends much upon what that one man does (too much on one man under my philosophy, but that is a discussion for another day). And he bears a heavy burden. So I pray for him.

Why I Pray for the Best for the President

I have received a few messages from people who seem confused by my post yesterday quoting The Anchoress. Her original statement also references the fact that some on the left hoped for "Iraq to go wrong" in order to win the presidency back. She also yesterday noted that a conservative website was calling for prayers for President Obama to fail.

Praying for the president to fail in our world means praying for poverty and death for Americans and most of humanity. Obama was clearly not my choice for president (5 seconds reading this blog and you get this I hope).

And yes, I am creeped out by things like this



(And things like this are not new, it has been going on for over a year now). To answer one friend's message, being inspired is one thing (my parents inspired me), this is something else.

But to pray for the president to fail? That is like praying for the strength to cut of my nose to spite my face.

EDITED TO ADD -- I finally made it to the end of that video. Go to 3:54. I am not a servant to the President. He is mine.

The First Black President

The commentary on the Obama inauguration has been focusing and repeating the fact that he is the first black president. It is amazing of course, when you consider that only 55 years ago, it took an division of paratroopers to allow a small number of black teenagers to attend a white high school in Little Rock.

I really have not been making a big deal about it. Partly I think it is because I always thought the first black president would be a Republican, named Powell or Watts or Steele. So there is a little jealously there.

But mostly I hope because I do believe in colorblindness. I hope that the next time a black man is elected president, no one will think much about it.

My hope is that skin color be reduced to a mere accident of birth. That it is a part of someone (the way my ethnicity is part of what makes me up). Yes, I fall short of that ideal all to often, but I can still try.

Headline of the Day

Obama Inaugurated, Ex-Klansman Collapses (HT: Instapundit).

I imagine Byrd, back in his KKK days 65 years or so ago, telling a friend "If a black man ever gets elected president it would kill me." As President Obama is only half black, Byrd collapsed but recovered.

This is only funny of course because Senator Byrd is OK.

A Thought for Inauguration Day

From the Anchoress --

"Obama was not my choice and I am appalled and a bit creeped out by the near-worship of him I’m seeing, but I do pray for him, and want the best, not the worst, for him, and for my country."

Amen sister, amen.

Advice to President Elect Obama

Everyone it seems has advice for the President Elect. So here is mine.

Back in 1968, Gore Vidal and William F. Buckley were hired by ABC to give commentary on the election. While both Vidal and Buckley hated each other (during the Democratic Convention they almost came to blows, so for most if not all of the remainder of the campaign they never sat in the same studio) the advice they gave on Election Night still is relevant.

Heed the ghetto as well as the boardroom, but also remember that the best run country in the world is Switzerland, and no one knows the name of that country's president.

The Inauguration

Some on the right have been noting that the Obama inauguration will cost significantly more than the Bush inauguration of 2004. There is some humor about this, given that then many on the left argued that such expense was indecorous with US troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. At the time, I can remember feeling uneasy with the amount spent on the Bush inaugural.


I guess I find he whole inauguration process a bit distasteful, no matter who is president. It seems a bit non-[small r] republican to me and somewhat monarchical. But I agree with the Anchoress -- if McCain was elected you would be hearing complaints about the cost. So let soon to be President Obama have his party, he has a heavy burden the next four years.

So good luck President Obama. You will need it.

Dear Mister Spitzer

There once was a time when a man in public life who found himself disgraced would quietly retire from the public eye. Instead, you have decided to give the President Elect advice on the economy. (HT Instanpundit)

Back in November, I suggested that you look to the example of John Profumo. When he was disgraced he acknowledged his wrongdoing and retired from public life. He then spent the rest of his life serving the homeless of London, rehabilitating himself in the eyes of society.

I know his case was more involved than yours -- the woman tied to Mr. Profumo was also tied to the Soviet military attache and there was the possibility of Cold War spying. Yours was a simple case. But take the example of that honorable man. Retire for public life, at least for a while. You are a wealthy man, concentrate of rehabilitating yourself and your reputation through good works and charity.

Can we afford a Keynesian Solution?

My good Internet buddy Bill Barker of Usually Right e-mailed me this link. In it, Professor Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics questions the proposed stimulus plan.

Bill (both Barker and Buiter) is preaching to the choir here. President Bush is afraid of being accused of doing nothing like Herbert Hoover. Of course, Hoover did actually do lots of things, mostly what President Bush is trying now, a stimulus package and loans to industry. They did not work and when tied with the 1930 Fed's decision to tightened credit, turned a bad recession in the Great Depression.

The problem is bad debt which is causing a lack of confidence. If I was in charge, I would have not done the bail out. I would keep interest rates moderately low and allow the banks liquidity, but put the worst entities into bankruptcy. They could have then restructured if they had value in an orderly fashion.

With respect to the debt crisis, I would recognize the problem is too much debt and bad debt at that. Again, no bail out, but as necessary loosen up laws to make it easier to renegotiate the debt, or write off debt in bankruptcy equal to collateral. Spend the money assisting those in greatest difficulty due to the financial crisis.

But no one listens to me (or Bill for that matter). So we will have more bail outs and a "stimulus" plan we cannot offer which will have dubious value. Speaking of which Barrack! Where is my check!

Leon Panetta for CIA

HOPE!

CHANGE!

MORE CLINTON RETREADS!

Seriously though, I think this is a good pick. He has no intelligence background, but I view the CIA Director would be more of a manager anyway. Considering the CIA's past history, I think an outsider is a good idea.

Unfortunately, no one seems to have told Diane Feinstein, the new Senate Intelligence Committee chair. So this could cause some interesting blue on blue fire, though I fully expect Senator Feinstein to be singing Mr. Panetta's praises come the committee hearing.

If I had my way, the CIA as it currently exists would be disbanded and replaced by a small central clearinghouse of an agency. In my world, civilian intelligence would be transferred to the State Department, Commerce Department, research bodies of certain other government agencies, the NSA and NRO (and as necessary, the FBI). The CIA would function coordinate the information from the civilian and military intelligence departments.

This pick further helps the cause of Italian world domination. If my father, staunch conservative Republican that he was, was still around, his comment would have been -- "Do you know he is Italian?"

Predictions for 2009 (Part 1)

The Anchoress asks for predictions for 2009. So here are some of mine.

• Israel's offensive against Hamas will end in a week or so. Hamas will be severely wounded, but rocket attacks will continue. When all is said and done, Hamas will claim victory.
  
• Soon after the inauguration, the Obama administration will announce that Iran is close to building a nuclear weapon. Within 6 months of the inauguration (and without Congressional authorization), President Obama will order missile strikes on Iran.
  
• The Iraq War will continue to wind down to the point that no US troops are in combat. There will be the occasional al-Qeada suicide attack and al Sadr will make occasional threats, but the Iraqi government will strengthen its hold on the country.
  
• Some of President Obama's earliest supporters will become disillusioned by President Obama's centrist governing style.
  
• The bailouts of the economy will have seemingly little effect, but the economy will self correct. The Dow will be in the high 9000s by December.
  
• In New York, Mayor Bloomberg will defeat court challenges to the repeal of term limits. He will win reelection with less than 50% of the vote.

I for one . . .

Welcome our new socialist overlords!

Back in the dying days of the election, I posted about whether I thought Barack Obama was a socialist (a question which gained traction after the "Joe the Plumber" incident). At the time I said that I doubted he was, but thought Obama was more of a managerial state type. Obama's picks so far seem somewhat centrist, so I still feel the same way. Even his proposed stimulus plan seems more like a conventional Keynesian program, writ large.

In any event, given that President Bush seems content to nationalize the economy, even without Congressional approval, there may be nothing left for President Elect Obama to nationalize, once he gets into office. So the question is somewhat moot.

So in the spirit of Christmas Nationalized:



I have been warning for years that the cats are plotting against us!

CHANGE!

HOPE!

CHANGE!

CLINTON (AND NOW BUSH) RETREADS!

ABC is reporting that Gates is staying at defense for at least a year .

Yes, I voted for McCain, but none of this really surprises me.

Obama is left wing in background and probably in sentiment. Yet his national security and economic team choices so far are ones I generally can support. Even Eric Holder, while he needs to answer a bit for the pardon issue, is someone I can support.

Then again, I am not Obama's base. There are going to be a lot of people who feel that Obama sold them a wagon of CHANGE! goods that are not being delivered. But then again, that does not surprise me either. Obama sold his coolness. He was in essence an empty slate on which lots of folks projected what they wanted. (He even admitted as such in one of his autobiographies).

My guy lost. The people I supported gave up on their principles and rightly lost the support and trust of the people. (To the point I no longer consider myself a Republican -- when the GOP loses people like me, you know they are in trouble). And if Obama is the socialist, why is George Bush the one nationalizing everything?

It is now Obama's turn.

I wish him luck and good will because my personal safety and prosperity rely on what that one man does. (It relies too much on one person in my philosophy, but that is another discussion for another day). I promise not to act like the unhinged left acted the last 4 years, though I reserve the right as an American to disagree with him responsibly and to chuckle at "change."

What is Obama's stance on Missile Defense in Europe?

What exactly is President-Elect Obama's stance on missile defense. Back in 2007, when he was still a long shot, he made the following video for Think Progress where he states he will cut funding in missile defense.



Yet, on his website and in the debates, he says that he supports missile defense.

Last week, after a discussion with the Polish President, Obama would not say whether he would continue building the proposed missile defense system in Eastern Europe. This has lead to charges among the right blogosphere that Obama has "surrendered" to Russia. He did nothing of the sort.

Strong supporter of missile defense that I am, I hope that Obama cancels this installation and further changes our policy toward Russia. Russia is no threat to the United States. It is not the threat the Soviet Union was. The Soviet threat was primarily ideological, but Russia has no ideological loyalty from anyone other than some silly Serbs. Rather, Russia is merely acting like past European powers acted, trying to dominate her neighbors. The European Union in both population and economy is larger than Russia.

I admit that Russia's complaints about the missile system are silly. 10 interceptors in Poland would have no impact on the Russian missile force. Yes, the system is faced against Iran, but the cost of relations with Russia is too much. In any event, I think NATO has outlived its usefulness and it is time to make the Europeans pay for thei own defense.

If you are concerned about Georgia and Ukraine, the real way to protect them is to reintegrate Russia into Europe and the West.

President Elect Obama can start by stating unequivocally where he stands on the European missile defense program.

What do we do now? Part 2

There will be initially the urge to act in opposition the way many on the left did with Bush. Namely, throw a tantrum and oppose every action.

This is wrongheaded for several reasons.

First, the closeness of the 2000 election, the fact that Bush lost the popular vote, and the seemingly endless recounts gave rise to the feeling on the left that Bush was "illegitimate." There is no such situation here. While we can argue if this was a landslide and what was the size of any "mandate", Obama won convincingly. His legitimacy to be president is beyond question.

Second, the press is obviously behind Obama and will play up the smallest of items into huge tempests. As much as we complain about the media, whining does not help. We need to have a better PR game, all the while trying to develop our own Internet based alternative media.

Third, I am an adult. You are all adults. Lets act like adults.

So what should we do?

Be responsible, intelligent, and most of all adult in our opposition. If President Obama does something I think wrongheaded, I will oppose and look for alternatives. If he supports something I support, I will support him. If he governs as the far left wing community organizer and legislator he was, oppose him and suggest alternatives. If he governs as the centrist Democrat he presented himself as during the general election, great. I will support those policies I support and try try and push him to the center right.

And if he governs as a vacuous but cool, post-modernist poster child having his way with a fawning press, well, that is what I am expecting right now. Then we shout that the emperor has no clothes.

In the old days, that would all sound silly. But thanks to the Internet, we can organize easier. “YES WE CAN!” But let's be adult and responsible about it.

What do we do now? Part 1

We lost. No doubt about it. As I sit in Newark Airport right now, siting next to me, there is a 20 something who looks like he has not slept in weeks wearing a tee shirt that says Planetarians for Obama.

Don't ask, I have no idea.

So, after an extremely disappointing night, what does a conservative do?

Cry?

Yell?

Pack his or her bags and move to Turks & Caicos?

Let's begin with some perspective -- the sun rose this morning.

There will be lots of post mortems on the election. But we can start with this. John McCain thought this was going to be an election about national security. Barrack Obama got his initial excitement going by calling for a withdrawal from Iraq.

In the end, did anyone really talk about Iraq or national security at all? Not really. It was "THE ECONOMY STUPID" come back from 1992. Senator McCain was completely unprepared to address it. Senator Obama, surrounded by bobos, was. And when McCain finally was forced to address the economy, he fumbled badly. It was not his fault really. No one really expected it and for conservatives, we tend , in theory, to think the government should be as light on the economy as possible. I say in theory because it is under a supposedly conservative president that the banks have been de facto nationalized.

So perhaps the first thing we get out of this is that people really care about bread and butter issues. And if we give up on core principles and try to buy popularity, we should expect losing. Given the chose between someone whose actions go against their theoretical principals, and someone who comes out and says the government will give you everything you need, the voter is going to go with the genuine article. If we play "me tooism" we will lose.

Bobos in Power

I have often said that President Elect Obama was never the "black" candidate, he was really the "liberal yuppie candidate." His election was driven by the new upper classes of education and money that feel they have been kept from power since the early 1960s, when their parents and grandparents supported JFK. Perhaps the term "yuppie" is the wrong one though. For many of the new class are not necessarily young. I wonder if a good term might not be "bobos" ("bourgeois bohemian"). David Brooks seems to have first developed this term, to refer to the new urban upper class and I have decided to adopt it as my term from now on..

Forbes.com has an article today about the triumph of the "creative class." (HT: Instapundit) The rise to power of this class may be the real shift of the 2008 election.

That looks to be about it

I guess that is it. I will call it early and say congratulations President Elect Obama.

EDITED to add -- it is true that it is a historic moment that the US elected a black president. I knew and hoped it would happen someday, though I hoped the president would be named Powell, Watts or Steele. But it is a moment.