What do we do now? Part 2

There will be initially the urge to act in opposition the way many on the left did with Bush. Namely, throw a tantrum and oppose every action.

This is wrongheaded for several reasons.

First, the closeness of the 2000 election, the fact that Bush lost the popular vote, and the seemingly endless recounts gave rise to the feeling on the left that Bush was "illegitimate." There is no such situation here. While we can argue if this was a landslide and what was the size of any "mandate", Obama won convincingly. His legitimacy to be president is beyond question.

Second, the press is obviously behind Obama and will play up the smallest of items into huge tempests. As much as we complain about the media, whining does not help. We need to have a better PR game, all the while trying to develop our own Internet based alternative media.

Third, I am an adult. You are all adults. Lets act like adults.

So what should we do?

Be responsible, intelligent, and most of all adult in our opposition. If President Obama does something I think wrongheaded, I will oppose and look for alternatives. If he supports something I support, I will support him. If he governs as the far left wing community organizer and legislator he was, oppose him and suggest alternatives. If he governs as the centrist Democrat he presented himself as during the general election, great. I will support those policies I support and try try and push him to the center right.

And if he governs as a vacuous but cool, post-modernist poster child having his way with a fawning press, well, that is what I am expecting right now. Then we shout that the emperor has no clothes.

In the old days, that would all sound silly. But thanks to the Internet, we can organize easier. “YES WE CAN!” But let's be adult and responsible about it.

What do we do now? Part 1

We lost. No doubt about it. As I sit in Newark Airport right now, siting next to me, there is a 20 something who looks like he has not slept in weeks wearing a tee shirt that says Planetarians for Obama.

Don't ask, I have no idea.

So, after an extremely disappointing night, what does a conservative do?

Cry?

Yell?

Pack his or her bags and move to Turks & Caicos?

Let's begin with some perspective -- the sun rose this morning.

There will be lots of post mortems on the election. But we can start with this. John McCain thought this was going to be an election about national security. Barrack Obama got his initial excitement going by calling for a withdrawal from Iraq.

In the end, did anyone really talk about Iraq or national security at all? Not really. It was "THE ECONOMY STUPID" come back from 1992. Senator McCain was completely unprepared to address it. Senator Obama, surrounded by bobos, was. And when McCain finally was forced to address the economy, he fumbled badly. It was not his fault really. No one really expected it and for conservatives, we tend , in theory, to think the government should be as light on the economy as possible. I say in theory because it is under a supposedly conservative president that the banks have been de facto nationalized.

So perhaps the first thing we get out of this is that people really care about bread and butter issues. And if we give up on core principles and try to buy popularity, we should expect losing. Given the chose between someone whose actions go against their theoretical principals, and someone who comes out and says the government will give you everything you need, the voter is going to go with the genuine article. If we play "me tooism" we will lose.

Can McCain win it?

I have been getting e-mails from friends noting a Zoby poll yesterday stating that McCain is now ahead. I do not buy it. For one, it is a Zogby poll and secondly, I think that poll has been reversed (there are so many polls and analysis out there, it is impossible to keep up).

Granted, while I think I will wake up on Wednesday (or more likely, go to sleep on Tuesday) hearing the words "President Elect Obama", it is not outside the realm of fantasy that McCain would win. This has been a very difficult race to poll. And while I absolutely hate the presence of the "Bradley Effect" you can understand where it comes from. Add to that "Shy Tory Factor," given the way Republicans and conservatives are portrayed in the media and movies, etc, I can see that some people may be less willing to admit voting for one.

So if McCain wins this, I will not be entirely surprised. But I really doubt it.

Sports and Elections

My old DC friend Robert George notes that Yankees recent era of dominance started when a Democrat (Bill Clinton) was elected to the White House.

Of course, the two times the Mets won the World Series, a Republican was in the White House.

One other point. The 1970 UK General Election was something of a shock win for the Tories. The preference polls mostly showed it close, but with Labour winning. But polls asking who people THOUGHT would win were heavily Labour winning.

It was a shock but shouldn't have been -- though Labour started with a large lead, the Tories gained steadily through the campaign. In the end, the Tories won by a few percentage points, but comfortably in seats.

The reasons given usually deal with a mistimed late budget released by Labour with a little bit of Shy Tory factor (like Bradley factor, except that people did not want to admit being a Tory because it was uncool). Another factor was that Enoch Powell's anti-immigrant speeches may have thrown some traditional Labour voters to the Conservatives.

So where am I going with all this? There is another theory. Shortly before the 1970 General Election, on top of everything else, the English soccer team (who were defending World Cup champs) were knocked out by West Germany in spectacular fashion days before the election. Some commentators feel that with all the other bad news at the time, that was the final straw that killed Labour's chances.

Let's Go Mets!

The Endless Presidential Campaign

Thankfully, it is almost over. But the last several presidential campaigns, lasting for two years and where little actually gets said, it getting to be too much for me.

I have come to the conclusion that a parliamentary system may be better. The party leaders are chosen outside of the context of the campaign. They face each other across the aisle every debate and ask each other hard questions. While the parliaments have a required ending date, an election is chosen often prior to that time. The election campaign itself lasts a month.

At least it will soon end!

Powell's Endorsement

The blogosphere and the pundits have been ablaze with Colin Powell's endorsement of Senator Obama. It is not really that great a shock. It has been rumored for months (there were even rumors that Powell would speak at the Democratic Convention).

We on the right need to face facts. This is the last nail in the coffin. I know most conservatives do not like McCain but he was the only Republican who had a shot this year. He was game but the financial crisis (and his answer to it) doomed him.

Obama is the result of Bush. Without Bush., Barrack Obama is probably a Con Law professor, not about to be elected president. When Bush started talking about “compassionate conservatism” we all should have raised alarm bells. His actions after going into Iraq, his tone deafness, his fecklessness and his manifest unseriousness about everything has lead us here. And ow he is doing Obama's job for him by nationalizing the financial sector.

We as conservatives need to rethink a lot. As I noted last week, maybe we are meant for a period in the deep wilderness to remember our principles. I do worry though that collectivism and intervention will now be the norm.

Isn't this debate . . .

Isn't this debate supposed to be about national security.

Updated -- they are now finally talking about Iraq.

Now Afghanistan. I wonder if the solution to Afghanistan is to draw a line and kill what comes over. Iraq is basically stuck in the 1950s. Afghanistan is basically a 7th Century country.

Updated -- McCain is now hitting Obama on Pakistan. It is a failed state.

Updated -- Obama is talking tough on Iran.

Updated -- "I don't even have a seal yet." Did Obama take his seal?

At least Obama is recognizing Iran is an enemy.

Updated -- Obama sees Russia as a threat to the region. So much for a noninterventionist foreign policy. Georgia for NATO. But no Cold War.

Update -- Obama and McCain agree on clean coal -- I hope he told Biden.

Update -- Obama says yes on missile defense.

Well it is over.

Yea!

McCain mentions nuclear power and drilling.

The Debate

With all the live blogging, I will too.

For now, all I will say is that neither seem on their game.

A Drink for the Debate

Palin Syrah from Chile. Nice tasting, organic, and fairly inexpensive. In New York, it can be found at Appellation, over on 10th Avenue.

McCain suspends his race

Everyone is talking about Senator McCain's decision to suspend his campaign and head to Washington for the bailout. He has asked that Friday's first debate be postponed. At this time, it seems unclear whether Senator Obama will agree.

My reaction is that this will surprise those who know me -- I see this as Senator McCain essentially conceding the election. Two weeks ago, when Senator McCain was rising in the polls, I warned that something could happen to reverse the situation. In particular, I warned that the credit crunch could get worse. It has.

As I listen now to President Bush speak, I believe that the rescue plan will be unpopular. Some will see it as a bailout of big business, others as too little too late, and in any event, the GOP will be tagged with allowing it to get to this point (and while I think there is lots of blame to go around, Bush could have done things administratively to slow down Fannie and Freddie and the whole market).

I am a fervent McCain supporter. I believe that he has was the best person in 2000 and is the best person now. But the election is no longer about Iraq or foreign policy, it is now about the economy and this will hurt McCain. (as an aside, for saying this, I have been accused of Astroturfing). I wish that were so.

I hate to say it and I hope I am wrong, but McCain just conceded the election, in an honorable way.

[Edited to add -- Senators McCain and Obama just released a joint statement on the bailout]

Looking at the Election

For the first time in months, I am actually holding out hope that Senator McCain will actually win this thing. The Obama campaign seems to be in a melt-down phase, the media is having a complete fit over Sarah Pallin and the McCain seems to have found his voice.

Already, conservatives are declaring victory and starting victory laps.

Of course, none of this takes into account that it is still seven weeks to Election Day. Much can happen between now and then. The credit crunch could flare into a full blown meltdown. War could flare up again in Georgia. The Middle East could have an oil shutdown -- who knows.

The latest is that McCain is supposedly closing the gap in NEW YORK.

I find it hard to believe. The last time a Republican won New York was in 1984, when Reagan won about 54% of the vote. The last time a Republican won New York City was Calvin Cooolige in 1924.

Back in 1988, when I was volunteering on the Bush campaign, the last weekend, the office was awash with rumors that New York was winnable. We were told that Bush was only 3% behind Dukakis in Queens and that statewide, internal polling showed a statistical tie. In the end, Dukakis won the state with about 52% of the vote and won Queens pretty handily if I recall.

One thing to note is that while New York has usually been a reliably Democratic state, it was not always with the big margins we saw in the past few elections. Granted, that was during the days of the Rockefeller Republicans, but the state was usually "in play." However, given the changes in the state's demography and the past few elections, I cannot see McCain having a real chance at winning. While I have seen lots of Obama bumper stickers ans signs since I moved to Park Slope, I have yet to see any evidence that there is another McCain voter in my neighborhood. Even the suburbs have changed in political makeup. What McCain can hope for is to force Obama to spend time and effort here, instead of Virgina and Colorado.

[edited to fix my public school spelling]

The Real Reason Obama is more Qualified to Be President than McCain

"I think they spent months trying to figure out how they can position Obama as better qualified than McCain, and basically came up with the fact that Obama can type."

Village Idiot, commenter on Ace of Spades blog (HT -- comment to the Head Tilter).

Seriously, this is dumber than Hillary Clinton's "3 AM" ad



So, after getting past the computer and e-mail comment, Obama throws in an attack on taxes and the economy. But still, "he can't send an e-mail"?

And of course, it turns out that McCain cannot send an e-mail because he cannot type, the result of 5 years of communist torture.

I know I am not the first to wonder this, but is Obama really trying to win the election?

WARMONGER!

There was a bit of an uproar today when ABC News showed the first part of Charlie Gibson's interview with Sarah Pallin. Pallin noted that if Georgia was in NATO (something she supports), an invasion of Georgia by Russia would mean the US and others would go to war with Russia.

WARMONGER! was the cry.

Well, DUH -- under the NATO charter an attack on one is an attack on all, requiring the other NATO members to intervene. So if Georgia is a member of NATO, a Russian attack on Georgia would require us to attack Russia.

Now, Obama also wants Georgia (and Ukraine) to join NATO. So I assume that if Georgia joins NATO and is attacked by Russia, President Obama will also go to war with Russia.

One can argue that the TONE of the statements are different, Obama is a bit conciliatory toward Russia while Pallin a bit more bellicose, but the fact remains that Obama's position on Georgia is little different that Pallin's (or McCain's for that matter, as McCain's position is the one that really counts).

Personally, I do not support US membership in NATO anymore, so you can guess my feelings about Georgian membership. But given the lack of imagination by our foreign policy elites, we will continue to be members in NATO.

So the point is, both candidates support Georgian membership of NATO. Which means that any Russian attack on Georgia will mean that we have to go to war with Russia.

So what do I think of the Republicans?

The Sarah Palin pick will either go down as the most brilliant, or most disastrous, election decisions in history. I really do not see any middle ground. And that is strange, because usually, vice-presidential choices do not matter. Did Dick Cheney give GWB a boost? Did George Bush do anything for Ronald Reagan? Walter Mondale still lost in a landslide despite putting Ferraro on the ticket (and if I recall correct, Reagan even won Ferraro's district).

But Palin may have an effect. Let's be frank, the conservative base of the GOP has not shared my enthusiasm for John McCain. Governor Palin may have in one speech energized the base of the GOP in a way he could not.

I actually have been talking about her quite a bit, though it seems I mentioned her only twice in passing on this blog. She was my "hoped for" pick, though I could not really see him doing it. My Obama supporting wife has been hearing about Palin for about 5 months and when she saw the smile on my face her first words were "Palin?"

So why am I so excited? I am not an evangelical or politically a social conservative. But Palin has an appeal across constituencies. To me, I see her as a radical reformer, who took on the Alaska political establishment and a republican Senator I do not like. I also see her as someone who can make the case for drilling for more oil here, to take the pressure off until new sources of fuel are developed.

And while I can point to her as a reformer, she comes across as a practically intelligent, quirky, strong willed woman. I come a family filled with practically intelligent, quirky, strong willed women (though they are a bit difficent in the moose killing department).

Then she gave that speech.

As for McCain's speech, McCain was being McCain. That is who he is. People know him. He cannot, and should not, try to match Obama's oratorical brilliance or rock star appeal. But he should use the contrast to his advantage -- he must cast himself as a Cinncinatus in comparison to Obama's Gracchus.

In any event, this is really Obama's race to lose, not McCain's to win. Obama should be up by a lot more, considering the general level of discontent but he is not. . McCain's best hope is that the debates get Obama away from the teleprompter. That is where McCain can shine, and Obama has had some difficulties.

But even that may not be enough. Still, I can have the AUDACITY to HOPE that McCain will CHANGE the results of this election, right?

More About Iraq

I guess I should point out that my old DC acquaintance Robert George (America's only Black, West Indian, Catholic, Republican stand up comedian) pointed out the GOP's problem with not declaring Iraq victory two weeks ago and again today.

Instead of saying "IT WORKED!" and noting that the Iraqi War is essentially over (and can be handed over to the Iraqi government now), Senator McCain has handed this issue over to Obama, regardless of whether Prime Minister Maliki was misquoted or not.

So, what about Iraq?

I have not been posting much about Iraq of late, mostly because I guess our news media seems to have tired of the issue. But Senator Obama is in Iraq and has met with the Iraqi government. I have been trying to figure out lately what Obama's view on Iraq is and after today, it seems he is firmly behind a 16 month timetable for withdrawal. Which makes sense, given that over the past few months, the situation in the country seems to have gotten better. Even Sunni dominated Anbar province, which was written off a few years ago, is soon to be handed over to the Iraqi government's security forces (the hand off was delayed due to sandstorms).

If Michael Yon is to be believed, the Iraqi War is essentially over. While Yon probably knows more about the situation in Iraq than 99% of non-Iraqis, I will wait a bit before agreeing with him (though I hope he is right).

For that reason, Senator Obama may have an opening. While a 16 month draw down may not go over well with his left wing base, it shows that he is able to adjust with changed circumstances. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was quoted in Der Spiegel as agreeing with Obama's plan, though CNN reported that Maliki claims he was misquoted so I am not sure what to believe. Translation errors do happen or it could have been a journalist reporting what he wanted to hear or maybe Maliki rethought what he said or who knows.

By rejecting a timetable, the Bush Administration and Senator McCain may be harming their cause. This was never supposed to be about annexing territory (and please leave your oil fueled conspiracy theories behind, while I do not doubt Iraq was important because of oil, I also believe there were other reasons for the invasion). While the Iraqi government has made great strides over the past year or two, they must be continuously pushed into the right direction -- i.e., taking over responsibility for their own country. If the US military has an open ended mission there, they may be happy to have the US fight their enemies.

And while the change in tactics seems to have worked, the real question needs to be asked -- what took so long?

In any event, a KFC has opened in Fallujah. It seems that means it should be over soon. The question of whether it was all worth it will take longer to determine. If past history is any guide, there will be an official story, followed by a conventional story, followed 40 years of revisionism.

It is time for some campaigning!

Send a JibJab Sendables® eCard Today!

300

Barrack Obama has 300 foreign policy advisers. They are organized into teams and seem to have already developed a diplomatic bureaucracy. (HT: Althouse) This number does not seem to include Samantha Power.

Here is video (not) released by the Obama campaign showing the advisers addressing the ongoing crisis with Iran.



Click here for a recent foreign policy debate between McCain and Obama

Oil Policy

Energy policy should be a big issue in this election. I am a big believer in alternative energy and a big supporter of biofuels (I oppose the ethanol subsidy, rather I would end the tariffs on Brazilian ethanol and mandate that all gasoline powered cars in the United States be flex-fuel by 2012). I am happy to see that Obama has been talking about biofuels and he has come close to the Zubrin plan, though he has not mentioned it by name. Someone should, immediately, send Obama a copy of Zubrin's book "Energy Victory".

But for the foreseeable future, oil will still be important and it has to come from somewhere. Obama opposes drilling here, drilling in the Artic, and now his comments against tar sand oil. He also complains about the price of oil. His answer is to threaten the oil companies.

I do not think the oil companies are charitable institutions. They are businesses and their goal is to maximize profits. But maybe instead of demonizing them, they should be allowed to drill somewhere. Oil is going up and up, and most of what I read suggests that it is a bubble -- demand increases in China (which had been heavily subsidizing gasoline, increasing demand) in and of itself do not account for the increase. Uncertainty over Iran and Iraq play into it. But ultimately, it is the THREAT of future events that are driving the price. Allowing drilling the Artic or offshore might reduce uncertainty and allow prices to come down to a more reasonable level.

I am not suggesting that we will see $1.10 regular gas ever again -- I know that will never happen. But we need to reduce prices for no other reason than the fact that much of our oil money goes to places that are trying to destroy us -- in effect, we are paying for attacks against us. And drilling here and now, along with buying Canadian oil and getting shale oil regulations passed will give us the breathing room necessary to get alternative sources online (and also a few years so that a flex-fuel mandate will have time to operate). That is important, pushing for drilling now does not mean that alternative energy is forgotten. In fact, under Senator McCain's plan, there would be both. Senator McCain even calls for a flex-fuel mandate!