Looking at the Election

For the first time in months, I am actually holding out hope that Senator McCain will actually win this thing. The Obama campaign seems to be in a melt-down phase, the media is having a complete fit over Sarah Pallin and the McCain seems to have found his voice.

Already, conservatives are declaring victory and starting victory laps.

Of course, none of this takes into account that it is still seven weeks to Election Day. Much can happen between now and then. The credit crunch could flare into a full blown meltdown. War could flare up again in Georgia. The Middle East could have an oil shutdown -- who knows.

The latest is that McCain is supposedly closing the gap in NEW YORK.

I find it hard to believe. The last time a Republican won New York was in 1984, when Reagan won about 54% of the vote. The last time a Republican won New York City was Calvin Cooolige in 1924.

Back in 1988, when I was volunteering on the Bush campaign, the last weekend, the office was awash with rumors that New York was winnable. We were told that Bush was only 3% behind Dukakis in Queens and that statewide, internal polling showed a statistical tie. In the end, Dukakis won the state with about 52% of the vote and won Queens pretty handily if I recall.

One thing to note is that while New York has usually been a reliably Democratic state, it was not always with the big margins we saw in the past few elections. Granted, that was during the days of the Rockefeller Republicans, but the state was usually "in play." However, given the changes in the state's demography and the past few elections, I cannot see McCain having a real chance at winning. While I have seen lots of Obama bumper stickers ans signs since I moved to Park Slope, I have yet to see any evidence that there is another McCain voter in my neighborhood. Even the suburbs have changed in political makeup. What McCain can hope for is to force Obama to spend time and effort here, instead of Virgina and Colorado.

[edited to fix my public school spelling]