Sunday, November 2, 2008

Can McCain win it?

I have been getting e-mails from friends noting a Zoby poll yesterday stating that McCain is now ahead. I do not buy it. For one, it is a Zogby poll and secondly, I think that poll has been reversed (there are so many polls and analysis out there, it is impossible to keep up).

Granted, while I think I will wake up on Wednesday (or more likely, go to sleep on Tuesday) hearing the words "President Elect Obama", it is not outside the realm of fantasy that McCain would win. This has been a very difficult race to poll. And while I absolutely hate the presence of the "Bradley Effect" you can understand where it comes from. Add to that "Shy Tory Factor," given the way Republicans and conservatives are portrayed in the media and movies, etc, I can see that some people may be less willing to admit voting for one.

So if McCain wins this, I will not be entirely surprised. But I really doubt it.

7 comments:

Tor Hershman said...

As Mr. Innes wrote, "No matter who you vote for the government always gets in."

Stay on groovin' safari,
Tor Hershman

Anthony said...

I actually had to look up "Innes".

I stay on the groovin' safrai, you keep the art going!

William R. Barker said...

If I had to bet I'd bet on...

Nope. Still idea.

As I've said all along, neither a blowout nor a tight race will surprise me; neither an Obama victory nor a McCain victory.

I can't even tell you which outcome would cheer/depress me more; or, rather, which would depress me less.

(*SHRUG*)

I'm still hoping for that military coup!!!

(*WINK*)

BILL

Anthony said...

Now bill, that is just wrong.

For most of the campaign I was convinced that the Democrat would win. I did think that only McCain had a chance for the GOP and the only time he really might have won was the period between the GOP convention and the credit emergency. I thought when McCain "suspended" his campaign and worked on the bailout, it was over.

Still, given how crazy everything is, I have no idea what the final result will be. I would not be surprised by any result or spread tonight.

William R. Barker said...

What's "just plain wrong...???"

(Seriously...)

(*SCRATCHING MY HEAD*)

* Just noticed a typo on my original post: I meant to write "Nope. Still no idea." (Is that what confused you?)

Of course McCain COULD have won. He could have won by campaigning as a conservative. (*SHRUG*)

Correct me if I'm under a false perception here, but you've always basically liked McCain - right?

I've always hated the man. Not on ALL things. Not at ALL times. But I would have been thrilled to death if McCain had switched Parties and become a Democrat back in 2002. (*SHRUG*)

I liked Rudy in the primary. Rudy - for whatever reason, maybe we'll never know - seemed to purposefully sabotage his own campaign so as to ensure he'd never actually have to be the nominee and probable president. (*SHRUG*)

I fear and detest HRC far more than I detest McCain and far more than I fear Obama. (*SHRUG*)

I was proud of you when you came down AGAINST the bailout. (*SHRUG*)

So... what is it I wrote (either earlier or here) that's "just wrong?"

BILL

Anthony said...

Hoping for a coup Bill. That is plain wrong (and yes, I know you were joking).

As for most of the rest, I think you are right. With respect to Palin, she has taken her lumps, but frankly, I think that without her, McCain is looking at trying to100 EVs today.

William R. Barker said...

Anthony...

(*CHUCKLING TO MYSELF*)

About the coup thing...

(*PAINED EXPRESSION*)

I'm not totally kidding.

I'm not big on "going down with the ship" and in the long term I truly do believe that our DISFUNCTIONAL democracy (as opposed to the theoretical Democracy most of us - including me - revere) is bit by bit imploding upon itself with what I fear will bring unavoidable negative consequences.

(*SHRUG*)

So, no... I'm not "joking" when I remark in an off-hand humorously meant "short hand" that I would love to see a few years of benevolent authoritative governance that would return the nation to the course of constitutionalism under an involved, educated, and responsible citizenry.

I realize it's a fantasy. I just hope you realize any hope of the U.S. remaining "recognizable" in broad terms 25-75 years out from now (compared to pre-New Deal America or even compared to post-WW-2 or even Reagan era America) is also a fantasy.

BILL