I have been getting e-mails from friends noting a Zoby poll yesterday stating that McCain is now ahead. I do not buy it. For one, it is a Zogby poll and secondly, I think that poll has been reversed (there are so many polls and analysis out there, it is impossible to keep up).
Granted, while I think I will wake up on Wednesday (or more likely, go to sleep on Tuesday) hearing the words "President Elect Obama", it is not outside the realm of fantasy that McCain would win. This has been a very difficult race to poll. And while I absolutely hate the presence of the "Bradley Effect" you can understand where it comes from. Add to that "Shy Tory Factor," given the way Republicans and conservatives are portrayed in the media and movies, etc, I can see that some people may be less willing to admit voting for one.
So if McCain wins this, I will not be entirely surprised. But I really doubt it.
Showing posts with label political predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political predictions. Show all posts
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Worst Political Prediction Ever
"On every morning that you wake up for the rest of your life you will be ashamed of what you did last night" -- David Margesson to John Profumo, May 9, 1940.
John Profumo was a young Tory member of Parliament who had been elected in April 1940 on a pro-Nevile Chamberlain platform. As the early course of World War II turned against the Allies, on May 8, 1940, the House of Commons held a confidence vote on Chamberlain's government. Profumo was serving in the Army when elected, and received a day's leave to attend the vote. As the members filed off into the lobbies to vote, Profumo, almost on a whim, joined 41 other government supporters in calling for Chamberlain's resignation.
Chamberlain's government won the vote, but it was obvious that he was mortally wounded as Prime Minister. Profumo, his duty done, then went off to a night club and proceeded to get drunk.
The next morning, Profumo was called to the office of the Tories' Chief Whip, David Margesson, who made that fateful prediction. Profumo returned to his unit.
The following day, May 10, 1940, the German war machine struck west, invading Belgium. By that evening, Winston Churchill was Prime Minister.
John Profumo would later take down another Conservative government, after sharing a bed with a woman sharing a bed with a Russian diplomat and lying about it to the House of Commons. But his action helping to take down the Chamberlain government in the end helped to save Western civilization.
John Profumo was a young Tory member of Parliament who had been elected in April 1940 on a pro-Nevile Chamberlain platform. As the early course of World War II turned against the Allies, on May 8, 1940, the House of Commons held a confidence vote on Chamberlain's government. Profumo was serving in the Army when elected, and received a day's leave to attend the vote. As the members filed off into the lobbies to vote, Profumo, almost on a whim, joined 41 other government supporters in calling for Chamberlain's resignation.
Chamberlain's government won the vote, but it was obvious that he was mortally wounded as Prime Minister. Profumo, his duty done, then went off to a night club and proceeded to get drunk.
The next morning, Profumo was called to the office of the Tories' Chief Whip, David Margesson, who made that fateful prediction. Profumo returned to his unit.
The following day, May 10, 1940, the German war machine struck west, invading Belgium. By that evening, Winston Churchill was Prime Minister.
John Profumo would later take down another Conservative government, after sharing a bed with a woman sharing a bed with a Russian diplomat and lying about it to the House of Commons. But his action helping to take down the Chamberlain government in the end helped to save Western civilization.
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