A McCain Rally?

A while back, I noted my somewhat forlorn hope that John McCain would find a way to rally himself back to the Republican nomination. Now the Washington Post shows that he may just have that chance.

In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, Rudy Giuliani maintains the lead nationally. McCain, however, has gained 7 percentage points in the past month, while the Fred Thompson boomlet seems to have run out of steam. Giuliani now leads McCain by 14 points nationally. Giuliani's support, however, is somewhat soft, especially among social conservatives. McCain, of course, may not make those folks happy either, but he comes without the baggage that Giuliani carries.

We have seen McCain rally before, only to drop quickly. And McCain still is in trouble on the fundraising front. But given Giuliani's soft support, he has a chance to put himself back into contention before the start of primary season.

Romney still has the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, the early states with the most interest. Given the early and compressed primary calender, this could propel him to the nomination.

The Post is calling this the most open GOP race since 1980, when Reagan had the early lead, but there was no one dominating candidate. It is going to be a wild ride.

Huckabee Rising?

Republicans have clearly been unimpressed with their choices for president. McCain's "turn" has sadly (in my opinion) fizzled, Giuliani has not quite reconciled the base, Romney turned out to be a little strange and Thompson was a great non-candidate, as a candidate he has not impressed.

So it is no surprise to me that Mike Huckabee is now being touted as a rising candidate by none other than David Brooks.

Huckabee was a governor, and governors do better in presidential campaigns then Senators. He can point to programs implemented and problems solved, not obscure policy arguments. His main negative is that he does not have a real foreign policy (and unlike 2000, foreign policy (Iraq, Iran, terrorism) will dominate the campaign). His socially conservative roots will put off some (that noise you just heard was Andrew Sullivan banging out another "anti-Christianist" essay), thought to me he comes off somewhat measured and more importantly, a federalist on such matters. And while he supports the Fair Tax, some fiscal conservatives worry about his spending habits as governor.

I have thought for a while that Huckabee should not be ignored. I cannot see him actually winning the nomination, but he is definitely someone the GOP should be listening too.

The Story of a Man named Fred

From Ragged Thots -- the GOP field meets the Beverly Hillbillies.

Or maybe it is a Thompson Surge

According to Rasmussen, Fred Thompson is ahead of Rudy Giuliani and is now the preferred candidate on the GOP side. In the Rasmussen poll, Thompson has a 28-19 lead over Giuliani, with McCain third at 14.

The GOP polls seem to be everywhere. GOP voters are really undecided. They are looking around for a candidate to chose and not crazy about the current crop. Eight years of "compassionate conservatism" and failed attempts at dealing with the Middle East have soured most GOP voters, at least for now.

So what happens between now and the Iowa caucus? Ron Paul, despite the fervor of his supporters is not viable, and neither is Brownback. Alan Keyes has jumped into the race (please stop laughing).

Of the major candidates, Romney has money, but I think not much else to offer the race. He comes across as being too slick, too polished and too much a politician. Giuliani is electable, but has too many negatives for the GOP voter. McCain was hurt bad by the immigration debacle. Given the deep antipathy among the GOP base for McCain, he already was on thin ice. The possibility that the immigration issue maybe BACK for a third time this Congress will simply remind the anti-immigration vote why they turned against McCain.

I still think Huckabee is the dark horse, he is a social conservative but is willing to be open to libertarian and fiscal conservative ideas like the Fair Tax. I still cannot see him as the nominee -- he does not have the money. But I think he has the possibility of staying around a long time and being considered a vice presidential candidate.

Still, though, considering how everything is in flux, I think that leaves an opening for John McCain.

Primary Season

The primary season begins in five months. It is hard to believe but not so long ago, primaries did not mean all that much. In 1960, JFK won the nomination despite announcing only in January of 1960 and entering only a few primaries. Granted the primaries were vital, his win in West Virginia over Hubert Humphrey showed that a Catholic could win a heavily Protestant state. In 1968, Humphrey won the nomination despite not entering a single primary. Even had RFK not been assassinated, Humphrey still probably would have won the nomination (on the date RFK was killed, Humphrey actually had a lead in delegates).

Now the South Carolina Republicans are moving their primary up to January 19, so that it, and not Florida will be first in the south. That means that New Hampshire will have to move their primary up, which in turn means Iowa moves their caucus up. Does that mean Iowa gets pushed into December?

In any event, on the Democratic side, baring some sort of tidal wave, I believe that Hillary Clinton is the easy winner. The Republicans are still open. McCain seems to be dropping while Giuliani retains his improbable lead. Romney remains a factor and then there is the Fred Thompson factor -- if as expected he soon makes it official, he could shake things up.

The Ames Straw Poll is Saturday and McCain and Giuliani have dropped out. Romney has a big lead in the Iowa polls and both Giuliani and McCain are not making much effort in the state. With New Hampshire in Romney's back door (though Giuliani is polling well), the real battle will be in South Carolina and Florida. Giuliani needs to win in the south and that is where Giuliani is making his big effort.

Conventional wisdom is that Giuliani's brand of conservatism will not play in Dixie. Yet, Giuliani is leading in Florida with Fred Thompson his closest rival. But Florida is not really the south -- it has many areas that are practically suburbs of New York. But South Carolina, home of rock ribbed social conservatism becomes Giuliani's key. The polls there show a tight race between Giuliani, Thompson and McCain. If Giuliani can win both Florida and South Carolina, the GOP nomination is effectively his.

The You Tube Debate

I was stuck late at work tonight, so I did not watch the You Tube debate. Instead, I periodically checked Ann Althouse to see her thoughts.

While some may argue it was a silly and pointless exercise, this is further proof in my mind that technology is changing the way the country is governed. All of those complaining about the main stream media as being biased toward the left are fighting the last war. Thanks to the Internet, it is easy for anyone to create a platform to spread their ideas. Howard Dean was I believe just a precursor. Ron Paul is creating an Internet based campaign. Fred Thompson has created much buzz through smart use of the Internet.

This You Tube debate is just the beginning.

Now for a question the candidates did not answer:

Fred Thompson and Reruns

If Fred Thompson runs for president, the producer of Law & Order is pulling Thompson's reruns starting September 1, in order to comply with "equal time" requirements for candidates.

Interestingly, the same thing happened to Reagan. While Reagan made some bad B movies, he made some good ones such as "Kings Row" (where a sadistic doctor cuts off his legs), "Knute Rockne" (go win one for the Gipper), "The Winning Team" (where he played an alcoholic Grover Cleveland Alexander) and "The Killers" (where he played a crime boss -- his only villain role). He also co-starred in a few movies with some big names such as Errol Flynn (in "Santa Fe trail").

Thompson's reruns and movies though would be a bigger help to him. He always plays authoritative, intelligent characters. Given the malaise of the GOP base, he could find himself, mostly by accident, as the nominee.