Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Or maybe it is a Thompson Surge

According to Rasmussen, Fred Thompson is ahead of Rudy Giuliani and is now the preferred candidate on the GOP side. In the Rasmussen poll, Thompson has a 28-19 lead over Giuliani, with McCain third at 14.

The GOP polls seem to be everywhere. GOP voters are really undecided. They are looking around for a candidate to chose and not crazy about the current crop. Eight years of "compassionate conservatism" and failed attempts at dealing with the Middle East have soured most GOP voters, at least for now.

So what happens between now and the Iowa caucus? Ron Paul, despite the fervor of his supporters is not viable, and neither is Brownback. Alan Keyes has jumped into the race (please stop laughing).

Of the major candidates, Romney has money, but I think not much else to offer the race. He comes across as being too slick, too polished and too much a politician. Giuliani is electable, but has too many negatives for the GOP voter. McCain was hurt bad by the immigration debacle. Given the deep antipathy among the GOP base for McCain, he already was on thin ice. The possibility that the immigration issue maybe BACK for a third time this Congress will simply remind the anti-immigration vote why they turned against McCain.

I still think Huckabee is the dark horse, he is a social conservative but is willing to be open to libertarian and fiscal conservative ideas like the Fair Tax. I still cannot see him as the nominee -- he does not have the money. But I think he has the possibility of staying around a long time and being considered a vice presidential candidate.

Still, though, considering how everything is in flux, I think that leaves an opening for John McCain.

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