Florida!

The day is finally here! All over Florida, old people drove to vote, after hitting the early bird special at Country Kitchen Buffet. And McCain is the winner.

By winning Florida, has McCain sewed up the nomination? Well, no. There are still lots of primaries, and Super Tuesday next week. But the establishment and conservative line has been that McCain won in New Hampshire and South Carolina because those states were "open" primaries -- independents and even some Democrats crossed over and voted for him.

But Florida was a closed primary -- only registered Republicans allowed. And McCain won. Now overwhelmingly., but enough.

So if Giuliani drops and endorses McCain, that should be enough to put McCain over the top.

One Third of my Third Worst Fear

One third of my third worst fear has come true. Thompson seemed to be surging in South Carolina and Giuliani is hanging on in Florida.

We really won't see a brokered convention, will we?

My Third Worst Fear

My worst fear is an HRC-Giuliani general election

My second worst fear is Mike Huckabee getting the nomination. Not just because he will lose, but because he might win.

So what is my third worst fear? That Mitt Romney wins Michigan, Fred Thompson wins South Carolina, and Rudy Giuliani wins Florida. The result is that NO ONE has momentum going into Super Tuesday. Those five pretty much split the delegates and no one ends up as the clear nominee.

Pundits have been dreaming about this since 1980, when Ted Kennedy tried to release the delegates. The last time a winner was not certain going into a convention was in 1976 when Reagan came within a whisper of knocking off Ford. (I actually remember watching the convention with my parents in a hotel room in Cooperstown).

Back in the old days, before McCain Feingold, the conventions were early in the summer. This gave the parties time to choose a candidate and still have a real long campaign, in the days when the candidate was actually chosen at the convention. Now the conventions keep getting pushed back as the nominee is known, and this way they can hold off making it official, allowing money to be saved for the general election. BUT if it is late August and there are two or three candidates that think they can win, what happens then?

So why John McCain?

As I promised a few weeks ago, why should America entrust itself to John McCain's leadership.

Reason number one is that of all the candidates of either party running, only John McCain is ready, on day one, to face the rest of the world. We can dream about pulling up the drawbridge and returning to the good old days when we minded our own business. We can fantasize that once George Bush leaves office the rest of the world will love us again.

But the truth is that the world is a dangerous place. Wishful thinking will not make it go away. Anti-Americanism long predates George Bush (when vacation in Italy in 1999, I got an earful from lots of Italians claiming Bill Clinton was a war criminal for intervening in Kosovo).

HRC represents a return to the vacation from history of the Bill Clinton years. Barack Obama does not have the experience and seems to naive. Romney would be a competent executive but would have to learn on the job. Giuliani would make an excellent Homeland Security director. Huckabee's foreign policy is an incoherent jumble and would be a disaster.

Hence, we need John McCain.

The You Tube Debate

Well, I finally watched a debated -- or at least most of it. I really like the You Tube format, although I think people should dress better if they want to ask candidates questions. The questions did not seem to be as silly as during the Democrat's debate (even the Cheney animation was a serious question, and the Red Sox v. Yankees question was a funny way to end it all).

The question on "don't ask don't tell" and the seemingly forever rebuttal by the questioner lost me. It also turns out that the questioner, a retired Army general, is connected to the Clinton campaign.

McCain came off extremely well. He seems to have done well in the debates so far. He is calm, focused, and shows both his competency and his principles. The showed his incredible grasp of foreign policy as well as taking the torture question head on. Yes, this man should be president.

Another who did well was Huckabee. He had the best answer of the night -- what would Jesus do about the death penalty? " Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office." Huckabee, however, continues to run as the great social conservative hope and sounded like he was interviewing for a pastor's job. I think he will end up if not winning in Iowa and maybe South Carolina, coming a close second.

Romney did not impress me. He seems too polished, too much answering questions based on what he thinks will be popular.

Thompson seemed very relaxed and answered the questions well. Thompson was a better non candidate than candidate and has lost much of his early bounce. So maybe he was relaxed as he was trying out for VP. He (and the other candidates) really punted the Rebel flag question though.

Giuliani stumbled at times. He was expecting to skip Iowa and New Hampshire and concentrate on Florida with the hope of pulling off an upset in South Carolina. But he is in trouble in the early states now. The pressure is on him and he knows it.

Ron Paul was, well, Ron Paul. The Paulistas reacted, well, as you would expect.

We should have a pool as to when Hunter and Tancredo drop out. My wife (not a Republican) has no clue who they are.

In the end, McCain won and Huckabee really helped himself. Let's hope we see more of this type of format.

A McCain Rally?

A while back, I noted my somewhat forlorn hope that John McCain would find a way to rally himself back to the Republican nomination. Now the Washington Post shows that he may just have that chance.

In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, Rudy Giuliani maintains the lead nationally. McCain, however, has gained 7 percentage points in the past month, while the Fred Thompson boomlet seems to have run out of steam. Giuliani now leads McCain by 14 points nationally. Giuliani's support, however, is somewhat soft, especially among social conservatives. McCain, of course, may not make those folks happy either, but he comes without the baggage that Giuliani carries.

We have seen McCain rally before, only to drop quickly. And McCain still is in trouble on the fundraising front. But given Giuliani's soft support, he has a chance to put himself back into contention before the start of primary season.

Romney still has the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, the early states with the most interest. Given the early and compressed primary calender, this could propel him to the nomination.

The Post is calling this the most open GOP race since 1980, when Reagan had the early lead, but there was no one dominating candidate. It is going to be a wild ride.

Huckabee Rising?

Republicans have clearly been unimpressed with their choices for president. McCain's "turn" has sadly (in my opinion) fizzled, Giuliani has not quite reconciled the base, Romney turned out to be a little strange and Thompson was a great non-candidate, as a candidate he has not impressed.

So it is no surprise to me that Mike Huckabee is now being touted as a rising candidate by none other than David Brooks.

Huckabee was a governor, and governors do better in presidential campaigns then Senators. He can point to programs implemented and problems solved, not obscure policy arguments. His main negative is that he does not have a real foreign policy (and unlike 2000, foreign policy (Iraq, Iran, terrorism) will dominate the campaign). His socially conservative roots will put off some (that noise you just heard was Andrew Sullivan banging out another "anti-Christianist" essay), thought to me he comes off somewhat measured and more importantly, a federalist on such matters. And while he supports the Fair Tax, some fiscal conservatives worry about his spending habits as governor.

I have thought for a while that Huckabee should not be ignored. I cannot see him actually winning the nomination, but he is definitely someone the GOP should be listening too.

How I Plan to Survive Another Clinton Presidency

I have become resigned to President Hillary Clinton. Yes, it is more than a year until the election. Not one primary or caucus has been fought and only a handful of super delegates have declared. Not one electoral vote has been cast. And while Andrew Sullivan dreams of Obama, Hugh Hewitt boosts Romney, many of my friends pray for Giuliani, and I continue to have pipe dreams about McCain, I recognize that Hillary Clinton cannot be stopped. And frankly, that thought does not bother me. If she is elected, the sun will rise, and I think she is adult enough to defend the country, support relatively free trade and not give in to the left wing of the Democrats. For most of her husband's presidency I worked 2 blocks away from the White House (enough to get questioned by security when the Chinese President came to town) so I doubt it will have much of an effect on me.

In any event, I have developed a four step program to survive a Hillary presidency.


STEP ONE

Assemble the ingredients

I prefer Belevdere myself. I also place the ice in the shaker for a minute or two beforehand to ensure the shaker itself is cold, then add the vodka

STEP TWO

Coat your glass in some vermouth.

Just a little, barely enough to coat the glass in a thin layer. Toss out the rest.

STEP THREE

Shake and pour.

I like to shake vigorously. This allows the vodka to get nice and cold. Some people claim that shaking "bruises" the liquor. With vodka martinis, that is a myth, and it probably is also a myth with gin.

STEP FOUR

Garnish.

Some people like lemon peel but I actually prefer olives. However, it seems that those dastardly liberals invaded my house while I was at work and stole all my olives. So I had to settle for pearl onions.

DRINK

Result -- enough of these and Dennis Kucinich could get elected I won't care. I just hope those damn Democrats don't raise the liquor tax or place a quota on imports of vodka and vermouth. In that case, I wonder how corn liquor martinis would taste?

CHEERS!

The Money Primary

Yesterday the thrid fundraising quarter ended. According to Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, both Romney and Giuliani have raised enough money to keep gong through February 5. Thompson has also raised quite a bit of money. John McCain has only raised about $5 million (so maybe my earlier post was premature).

Opensecrets.com has an in depth review of fundraising, so once the reports are released on the 15th, it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

The real concern for the GOP should be that the Democratic front runners have raised more money than the GOP leaders.

Or maybe it is a Thompson Surge

According to Rasmussen, Fred Thompson is ahead of Rudy Giuliani and is now the preferred candidate on the GOP side. In the Rasmussen poll, Thompson has a 28-19 lead over Giuliani, with McCain third at 14.

The GOP polls seem to be everywhere. GOP voters are really undecided. They are looking around for a candidate to chose and not crazy about the current crop. Eight years of "compassionate conservatism" and failed attempts at dealing with the Middle East have soured most GOP voters, at least for now.

So what happens between now and the Iowa caucus? Ron Paul, despite the fervor of his supporters is not viable, and neither is Brownback. Alan Keyes has jumped into the race (please stop laughing).

Of the major candidates, Romney has money, but I think not much else to offer the race. He comes across as being too slick, too polished and too much a politician. Giuliani is electable, but has too many negatives for the GOP voter. McCain was hurt bad by the immigration debacle. Given the deep antipathy among the GOP base for McCain, he already was on thin ice. The possibility that the immigration issue maybe BACK for a third time this Congress will simply remind the anti-immigration vote why they turned against McCain.

I still think Huckabee is the dark horse, he is a social conservative but is willing to be open to libertarian and fiscal conservative ideas like the Fair Tax. I still cannot see him as the nominee -- he does not have the money. But I think he has the possibility of staying around a long time and being considered a vice presidential candidate.

Still, though, considering how everything is in flux, I think that leaves an opening for John McCain.

Primary Season

The primary season begins in five months. It is hard to believe but not so long ago, primaries did not mean all that much. In 1960, JFK won the nomination despite announcing only in January of 1960 and entering only a few primaries. Granted the primaries were vital, his win in West Virginia over Hubert Humphrey showed that a Catholic could win a heavily Protestant state. In 1968, Humphrey won the nomination despite not entering a single primary. Even had RFK not been assassinated, Humphrey still probably would have won the nomination (on the date RFK was killed, Humphrey actually had a lead in delegates).

Now the South Carolina Republicans are moving their primary up to January 19, so that it, and not Florida will be first in the south. That means that New Hampshire will have to move their primary up, which in turn means Iowa moves their caucus up. Does that mean Iowa gets pushed into December?

In any event, on the Democratic side, baring some sort of tidal wave, I believe that Hillary Clinton is the easy winner. The Republicans are still open. McCain seems to be dropping while Giuliani retains his improbable lead. Romney remains a factor and then there is the Fred Thompson factor -- if as expected he soon makes it official, he could shake things up.

The Ames Straw Poll is Saturday and McCain and Giuliani have dropped out. Romney has a big lead in the Iowa polls and both Giuliani and McCain are not making much effort in the state. With New Hampshire in Romney's back door (though Giuliani is polling well), the real battle will be in South Carolina and Florida. Giuliani needs to win in the south and that is where Giuliani is making his big effort.

Conventional wisdom is that Giuliani's brand of conservatism will not play in Dixie. Yet, Giuliani is leading in Florida with Fred Thompson his closest rival. But Florida is not really the south -- it has many areas that are practically suburbs of New York. But South Carolina, home of rock ribbed social conservatism becomes Giuliani's key. The polls there show a tight race between Giuliani, Thompson and McCain. If Giuliani can win both Florida and South Carolina, the GOP nomination is effectively his.