Romney

There seem to be lots of third place finishes for Romney. Unless he wins California, he is done.

McCain Rally

John McCain swung through Illinois on Friday. I attended the rally, though got there a little late. I was stuck in the back, practically in the lobby.

One of those blurs on the stage is the Senator (not a bad photo considering it was from my camera phone).

He seemed energized and ready to put the nomination away. But before us McCain supporters get to comfortable, the latest polls from California show that Romney is making a comeback there.

A couple of Ron Paul supporters showed up of course. One of them was whispering sweet nothings about illegal immigration and the gold standard in my ear.

But the Paulistas did not take away from the excitement McCain generated.

"Give the People What They Want!"

The Michigan Primary shows why maybe I am crazy to think there really is a market for libertarianism in this country, my protestations to the contrary. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country, businesses are fleeing the state, and the economy is hard up. The candidates response? John McCain tells folks we need to do a better job retraining people. Mitt Romney promises to single-handedly rebuild the auto industry.

People blame the auto industry, yet, elsewhere in the US, the auto industry seems to be doing well. VW has decided to build another plant in the US and they are looking at sites down south, not in Michigan.

So maybe the issue is not the federal government but (i) the fact that US auto makers are not building cars people actually want to buy and (ii) that there is something wrong in Michigan's business environment.

But Romney decides pandering is better politics than truth. And he wins.

It reminds me of the moment I realized I could never be a good politician. As a college kid I got myself elected to the Nassau County Republican committee. This is not really a big deal really. There are two committee persons per election district (maybe 800 registered voters) of which about 400 were registered Republicans.

I ended up running unopposed, so there was no election.

When I was going door to door, I had someone complain simultaneously that (i) housing prices were too high on Long Island, (ii) Long Island was over developed, and (iii) that she could not sell her house for the price she wanted (which was too high). I told her she could take care of all three problems by halving the price of her house and taking the money, buy an open field and live in a tent. Then she would sell her house, reduce housing prices and prevent over development

She actually thought it was funny and decided to support me, but I knew I could not do this 400 times.

One Third of my Third Worst Fear

One third of my third worst fear has come true. Thompson seemed to be surging in South Carolina and Giuliani is hanging on in Florida.

We really won't see a brokered convention, will we?

My Third Worst Fear

My worst fear is an HRC-Giuliani general election

My second worst fear is Mike Huckabee getting the nomination. Not just because he will lose, but because he might win.

So what is my third worst fear? That Mitt Romney wins Michigan, Fred Thompson wins South Carolina, and Rudy Giuliani wins Florida. The result is that NO ONE has momentum going into Super Tuesday. Those five pretty much split the delegates and no one ends up as the clear nominee.

Pundits have been dreaming about this since 1980, when Ted Kennedy tried to release the delegates. The last time a winner was not certain going into a convention was in 1976 when Reagan came within a whisper of knocking off Ford. (I actually remember watching the convention with my parents in a hotel room in Cooperstown).

Back in the old days, before McCain Feingold, the conventions were early in the summer. This gave the parties time to choose a candidate and still have a real long campaign, in the days when the candidate was actually chosen at the convention. Now the conventions keep getting pushed back as the nominee is known, and this way they can hold off making it official, allowing money to be saved for the general election. BUT if it is late August and there are two or three candidates that think they can win, what happens then?

So why John McCain?

As I promised a few weeks ago, why should America entrust itself to John McCain's leadership.

Reason number one is that of all the candidates of either party running, only John McCain is ready, on day one, to face the rest of the world. We can dream about pulling up the drawbridge and returning to the good old days when we minded our own business. We can fantasize that once George Bush leaves office the rest of the world will love us again.

But the truth is that the world is a dangerous place. Wishful thinking will not make it go away. Anti-Americanism long predates George Bush (when vacation in Italy in 1999, I got an earful from lots of Italians claiming Bill Clinton was a war criminal for intervening in Kosovo).

HRC represents a return to the vacation from history of the Bill Clinton years. Barack Obama does not have the experience and seems to naive. Romney would be a competent executive but would have to learn on the job. Giuliani would make an excellent Homeland Security director. Huckabee's foreign policy is an incoherent jumble and would be a disaster.

Hence, we need John McCain.

Onto New Hampshire!

I say this has been a great night for John McCain. Huckabee will not get much more traction. He does not have the money and Iowa was the result of two years of extraordinary effort.

Romney is now damaged. The way is open for McCain to extend his lead in New Hampshire and put himself on top!

Early Results

According to Fox, the Democrats Big Three are in a close race.

On the GOP side, Huckabee's supporters have come out in droves at 35%, with Romney second at 23%. Thompson is third. If this holds, Romney is in a lot of trouble. Huckabee does not have the money or the constituency in New Hampshire, where McCain is in the lead and growing. A distant second place finish and Romney is done.

Effects of Romney's Speech

It is too early to say. The analysis I have seen has been mostly positive, feeling that he made a good speech and hopefully will put the issue to rest.

The candidate who should feel happiest about the speech and the wall to wall coverage should be Mike Huckabee. In part, the speech was in response to the sudden surge of support for the conservative Christian Huckabee. Furthermore, the speech has deflected attention from the sudden rash of reports regarding Wayne Dumond, a convicted rapist who was paroled during Huckabee's time as Arkansas governor. Huckabee's role in the parole is under question. After being released, Dumond raped and killed another woman.

With Huckabee going from a little known candidate to suddenly in the lead in Iowa, the news media has decided to revisit the story. Given the anti-crime emphasis of the GOP, especially the social conservative wing that Huckabee is heavily courting, this could have hurt him badly. But the media has a short attention span, and the issue now is Romney's religion. Huckabee has to hope that the spotlight stays there for a while, then moves off to something else.

The Speech

Mitt Romney made his long awaited speech today on religion. He had hoped to defuse the questions surrounding his Mormonism in a way reminiscent of JFK's speech to the Houston Protestant Pastors in 1960.

I read the speech and saw part of it on the Internet today. It was a good, heartfelt speech. In the gym tonight, I was watching on t.v. while one bunch of pundits (from different sides of the aisle) seemed to think it was a great speech. Then on Oberman, well, Oberman was Oberman (I had a testy e-mail exchange with him once when he was still a sportscaster, so I really don't like him).

I had two problems with the speech.

First, I thought he seemed to insinuate that non-religious people cannot be good Americans. Considering that most of the Founders were "nonconformists" on the question of religion, and some were outright heretics, that is just wrong to say. I went through an atheist phase about 10 years ago -- was I less American for it?

Second, though, just from an overall standpoint, and as a Catholic, I am annoyed we even have to be having this conversation. Three years ago, John Kerry could run for president and no one asked about his Catholicism. No one seems very concerned about Rudy Giuliani’s lapsed Catholicism. 7 years ago, an Orthodox Jew could get nominated for vice president. No one really batted an eyelash. 47 years ago, a Catholic could get elected president but was forced to head off the Catholic issue. And even there (and in 1928 with Al Smith), the issue was whether Catholics would have to submit to the Pope.

The issue with Romney, and why it is so annoying, is not one of independence but rather simply theology. Some, especially on the Evangelical right, seem hung up not on Romney's ideology but rather on the teachings of Mormonism. This was not raised when his father ran for president in 1968 (though when Mo Udall ran for the democratic nomination in 1976, Colman Young, an ally of Carter did raise the Mormon issue).

I hoped we were past this as a country. I hope I am not wrong.

The You Tube Debate

Well, I finally watched a debated -- or at least most of it. I really like the You Tube format, although I think people should dress better if they want to ask candidates questions. The questions did not seem to be as silly as during the Democrat's debate (even the Cheney animation was a serious question, and the Red Sox v. Yankees question was a funny way to end it all).

The question on "don't ask don't tell" and the seemingly forever rebuttal by the questioner lost me. It also turns out that the questioner, a retired Army general, is connected to the Clinton campaign.

McCain came off extremely well. He seems to have done well in the debates so far. He is calm, focused, and shows both his competency and his principles. The showed his incredible grasp of foreign policy as well as taking the torture question head on. Yes, this man should be president.

Another who did well was Huckabee. He had the best answer of the night -- what would Jesus do about the death penalty? " Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office." Huckabee, however, continues to run as the great social conservative hope and sounded like he was interviewing for a pastor's job. I think he will end up if not winning in Iowa and maybe South Carolina, coming a close second.

Romney did not impress me. He seems too polished, too much answering questions based on what he thinks will be popular.

Thompson seemed very relaxed and answered the questions well. Thompson was a better non candidate than candidate and has lost much of his early bounce. So maybe he was relaxed as he was trying out for VP. He (and the other candidates) really punted the Rebel flag question though.

Giuliani stumbled at times. He was expecting to skip Iowa and New Hampshire and concentrate on Florida with the hope of pulling off an upset in South Carolina. But he is in trouble in the early states now. The pressure is on him and he knows it.

Ron Paul was, well, Ron Paul. The Paulistas reacted, well, as you would expect.

We should have a pool as to when Hunter and Tancredo drop out. My wife (not a Republican) has no clue who they are.

In the end, McCain won and Huckabee really helped himself. Let's hope we see more of this type of format.

A McCain Rally?

A while back, I noted my somewhat forlorn hope that John McCain would find a way to rally himself back to the Republican nomination. Now the Washington Post shows that he may just have that chance.

In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, Rudy Giuliani maintains the lead nationally. McCain, however, has gained 7 percentage points in the past month, while the Fred Thompson boomlet seems to have run out of steam. Giuliani now leads McCain by 14 points nationally. Giuliani's support, however, is somewhat soft, especially among social conservatives. McCain, of course, may not make those folks happy either, but he comes without the baggage that Giuliani carries.

We have seen McCain rally before, only to drop quickly. And McCain still is in trouble on the fundraising front. But given Giuliani's soft support, he has a chance to put himself back into contention before the start of primary season.

Romney still has the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, the early states with the most interest. Given the early and compressed primary calender, this could propel him to the nomination.

The Post is calling this the most open GOP race since 1980, when Reagan had the early lead, but there was no one dominating candidate. It is going to be a wild ride.

Huckabee Rising?

Republicans have clearly been unimpressed with their choices for president. McCain's "turn" has sadly (in my opinion) fizzled, Giuliani has not quite reconciled the base, Romney turned out to be a little strange and Thompson was a great non-candidate, as a candidate he has not impressed.

So it is no surprise to me that Mike Huckabee is now being touted as a rising candidate by none other than David Brooks.

Huckabee was a governor, and governors do better in presidential campaigns then Senators. He can point to programs implemented and problems solved, not obscure policy arguments. His main negative is that he does not have a real foreign policy (and unlike 2000, foreign policy (Iraq, Iran, terrorism) will dominate the campaign). His socially conservative roots will put off some (that noise you just heard was Andrew Sullivan banging out another "anti-Christianist" essay), thought to me he comes off somewhat measured and more importantly, a federalist on such matters. And while he supports the Fair Tax, some fiscal conservatives worry about his spending habits as governor.

I have thought for a while that Huckabee should not be ignored. I cannot see him actually winning the nomination, but he is definitely someone the GOP should be listening too.

How I Plan to Survive Another Clinton Presidency

I have become resigned to President Hillary Clinton. Yes, it is more than a year until the election. Not one primary or caucus has been fought and only a handful of super delegates have declared. Not one electoral vote has been cast. And while Andrew Sullivan dreams of Obama, Hugh Hewitt boosts Romney, many of my friends pray for Giuliani, and I continue to have pipe dreams about McCain, I recognize that Hillary Clinton cannot be stopped. And frankly, that thought does not bother me. If she is elected, the sun will rise, and I think she is adult enough to defend the country, support relatively free trade and not give in to the left wing of the Democrats. For most of her husband's presidency I worked 2 blocks away from the White House (enough to get questioned by security when the Chinese President came to town) so I doubt it will have much of an effect on me.

In any event, I have developed a four step program to survive a Hillary presidency.


STEP ONE

Assemble the ingredients

I prefer Belevdere myself. I also place the ice in the shaker for a minute or two beforehand to ensure the shaker itself is cold, then add the vodka

STEP TWO

Coat your glass in some vermouth.

Just a little, barely enough to coat the glass in a thin layer. Toss out the rest.

STEP THREE

Shake and pour.

I like to shake vigorously. This allows the vodka to get nice and cold. Some people claim that shaking "bruises" the liquor. With vodka martinis, that is a myth, and it probably is also a myth with gin.

STEP FOUR

Garnish.

Some people like lemon peel but I actually prefer olives. However, it seems that those dastardly liberals invaded my house while I was at work and stole all my olives. So I had to settle for pearl onions.

DRINK

Result -- enough of these and Dennis Kucinich could get elected I won't care. I just hope those damn Democrats don't raise the liquor tax or place a quota on imports of vodka and vermouth. In that case, I wonder how corn liquor martinis would taste?

CHEERS!

The Money Primary

Yesterday the thrid fundraising quarter ended. According to Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, both Romney and Giuliani have raised enough money to keep gong through February 5. Thompson has also raised quite a bit of money. John McCain has only raised about $5 million (so maybe my earlier post was premature).

Opensecrets.com has an in depth review of fundraising, so once the reports are released on the 15th, it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

The real concern for the GOP should be that the Democratic front runners have raised more money than the GOP leaders.

Or maybe it is a Thompson Surge

According to Rasmussen, Fred Thompson is ahead of Rudy Giuliani and is now the preferred candidate on the GOP side. In the Rasmussen poll, Thompson has a 28-19 lead over Giuliani, with McCain third at 14.

The GOP polls seem to be everywhere. GOP voters are really undecided. They are looking around for a candidate to chose and not crazy about the current crop. Eight years of "compassionate conservatism" and failed attempts at dealing with the Middle East have soured most GOP voters, at least for now.

So what happens between now and the Iowa caucus? Ron Paul, despite the fervor of his supporters is not viable, and neither is Brownback. Alan Keyes has jumped into the race (please stop laughing).

Of the major candidates, Romney has money, but I think not much else to offer the race. He comes across as being too slick, too polished and too much a politician. Giuliani is electable, but has too many negatives for the GOP voter. McCain was hurt bad by the immigration debacle. Given the deep antipathy among the GOP base for McCain, he already was on thin ice. The possibility that the immigration issue maybe BACK for a third time this Congress will simply remind the anti-immigration vote why they turned against McCain.

I still think Huckabee is the dark horse, he is a social conservative but is willing to be open to libertarian and fiscal conservative ideas like the Fair Tax. I still cannot see him as the nominee -- he does not have the money. But I think he has the possibility of staying around a long time and being considered a vice presidential candidate.

Still, though, considering how everything is in flux, I think that leaves an opening for John McCain.

The Ames Straw Poll

As expected, Mitt Romney, who has spent something like $4 million dollars in Iowa, won the Ames Straw Poll with about 31% of the vote. With McCain and Giuliani sitting it out, the surprise second place finisher was Mike Huckabee. There is a two word reason for this surprise -- "Fair Tax." The Fair Tax folks come out in force for Huckabee and it paid off.

This has to be somewhat disappointing for Romney. Despite the money he has spent in Iowa, turnout was down. For Huckabee, it is a big deal, as he now finds himself as a serious candidate. But a Baptist preacher who is a bass player and who is supporting a libertarian economic program MIGHT be a good VP candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.




Say what you want about Huckabee -- he is not you father's evangelical conservative Republican!



His slogan: Heterosexual sex, prescription drugs, and rock and roll!