Sunday, July 8, 2007

The Money Primary

The money primary is entering its next phase. The big winner of course is Obama who not only has raised lots of money, he has lots of cash on hand AND a wide donor base who can still deliver more. The big loser is John McCain (who I support) who is having trouble raising money and now has less cash on hand than Ron Paul.

McCain has never been popular with the GOP Establishment and he is not popular with the party's social conservative wing. This has hurt him in the money primary. I also think he figured he would be the "anointed one" this time (as the GOP tends to view people as having their "turn" -- 1980 was Reagan's turn, 88 was Bush Senior's turn, 96 was Dole's turn and 2000 was a make up for Bush Senior). So I do not think he took fundraising that seriously until it was too late.

Finally, do not underestimate the anger that the immigration bill has generated in the GOP (and I supported the bill). That really hurt him on fundraising. In the money primary, I do not think his support of the Iraq "surge" has hurt him that much (the polls being another matter). But I think the long series of missteps has made it look like he is unlikely to be nominated, which means that contributors are unlikely to give him more money for a losing cause. So it builds on itself.

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